The global economy
By The Economist
From The Economist
Published: September 18, 2012
The slowdown is spreading around the world.
Sep 1st 2012 | from the print edition
NOT for the first time, the recent behaviour of financial markets has been at odds with economic fundamentals. The living has been easy on American and European stock exchanges this summer, despite plenty of gloomy data. Investors may have been placing too much faith in the capacity of central banks to counteract economic weakness.
The global economy expanded by just 2.8% in the year to the second quarter, according to The Economist’s measure of world GDP (see chart). That is the slowest rate since the end of 2009, when recovery from savage recession in the wake of the financial crisis was getting under way. The most perturbing aspect of the current slowdown is that the weakness is so widespread, affecting emerging economies as well as rich countries.
The most fragile economy in the rich world is that of the troubled euro area, where GDP shrank by 0.2% (an annualised decline of 0.7%) in the second quarter, leaving it 0.4% smaller than a year earlier. Beset by fears about a possible Greek exit and a bigger bail-out for Spain (which this week received a rescue request of its own, from Catalonia’s regional government), the euro zone is sliding ever deeper into the mire. A composite index of output in manufacturing and services from Markit, a research firm, based on purchasing-manager reports in July and August, is pointing to a further fall in GDP in the third quarter.
The big bright spot within the 17-country area has been Germany’s continuing strength. Its economy, which makes up over a quarter of the euro zone’s output, expanded by 0.3% in the second quarter, leaving it 1% bigger than a year earlier. But the German light is dimming, too. A business-climate survey conducted by Munich’s Ifo Institute for Economic Research found expectations for the next six months at their lowest since mid-2009.
The euro zone’s troubles are hurting other rich countries. Bolstered by reconstruction work following the catastrophic earthquake and tsunami of March 2011, the Japanese economy grew by 3.5% in the year to the second quarter. But the value of exports to the European Union fell by a startling 25% in the year to July. On August 28th the government highlighted the risk to recovery from a further slowdown in overseas economies.
America has been doing a lot better than Europe. In the second quarter its GDP grew at an annualised rate of 1.7%, according to revised figures published on August 29th. But the recovery has been slowing: growth is down from 2% in the first quarter and 4.1% in late 2011. Although there are signs that the housing market is at last coming up for air—home prices rose by 1.2% in the year to the second quarter—consumer confidence fell sharply in August.
Making matters worse, the slowdown is also affecting emerging economies. Among the four BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China), Brazil’s fall from grace has been particularly marked: its growth in early 2012 was anaemic. A wider slowdown in Latin America is under way as Chinese demand for commodities from the region slackens.
Flagging imports suggest that China’s slowdown will prove to be more severe than previously expected. The country’s exporters are also having a hard time. In August new export orders for manufacturers were at their weakest since March 2009, according to Markit. Chinese GDP grew by 7.6% in the year to the second quarter, its slowest rate since the financial crisis. Industrial production grew by only 9.2% in the year to July, well down on the 14% rate a year ago. The Shanghai stockmarket, which has plumbed a three-year low, reflects this sense of weakness.
In contrast, rich-country stockmarkets have been buoyant over the summer. During the past month American equity prices rose by 4%; European stockmarkets were even more sunkissed, gaining an impressive 6%. The rallies are now petering out, perhaps because investors are becoming more realistic about what central banks can truly deliver.
On August 31st Ben Bernanke, chairman of America’s Federal Reserve, was expected to offer some clues about the direction of the country’s monetary policy at an annual pow-wow for central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Even if he were to hint at a third bout of quantitative easing, another round of QE seems likely to have less impact on American growth than the previous two.
One central banker who won’t be in Jackson Hole is Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank (ECB). He cancelled his trip because of his workload ahead of a crucial meeting of the bank’s council on September 6th. Markets are eagerly awaiting what he has to say after that meeting. The single most important reason why they regained their vim over the summer was Mr Draghi’s pledge on July 26th that the ECB was “ready to do whatever it takes” to save the euro. Mr Draghi has laid out a framework for renewed purchases of government bonds, but a host of crucial details remain to be resolved. Even if he can present a proper plan in early September, which some doubt, investors may be disappointed at what emerges—not least because Jens Weidmann, head of the influential German Bundesbank, has stepped up his opposition to bond purchases.
The disappointing rich-world recovery following the financial crisis has shown that central banks cannot by themselves reboot debt-burdened economies. The endless euro saga has demonstrated that a lasting solution to debt crises requires bold political action. Financial markets forgot those lessons over the summer; they may soon have to relearn them.
from the print edition | Finance and economics
全球陷入經濟憂鬱症？
2012-09-05 天下雜誌 505期 作者：經濟學人
第二季全球經濟成長率，創下○九年以來新低，更令人不安的是，不只是歐美如此，連新興國家表現也不好。藍色憂鬱，恐將蔓延全球。
金融市場與經濟基本面脫鉤，這次並非第一次。上半年，歐美股市表現不錯，景氣卻是軟趴趴，反映出投資人對於各國央行救經濟的能力，似乎太過有信心了。
《經濟學人》指出，全球經濟在第二季僅成長了二．八％，這是自二○○九年底，全球準備從金融海嘯谷底起死回生以來，最緩慢的成長步調。
這波成長趨緩最讓人不安的是：疲軟的不只是先進國家，開發中國家也不例外。
在已開發國家中，體質最弱的是債務危機纏身的歐元區，第二季GDP與前一季、及去年同期相比，分別衰退○．二％和○．四％。歐元區眼下的危機，是希臘的退出，和西班牙可能需要更大規模的紓困。
歐元區唯一的亮點，是持續成長的德國，此區四分之一以上的生產力都靠它。德國第二季分別比前一季和去年同期成長○．三％和一％。儘管如此，德國的表現也在走下坡，景氣信心是二○○九年以來最低點。
相較於歐洲，美國的狀況要好得多。第二季GDP年成長率或可達一．七％，但仍遜於第一季的二％、及去年下半年的四．一％。
先進國家很憂鬱，發展中國家也沒好到哪去。
在金磚四國中，巴西的衰退最明顯。今年上半年，巴西可說是原地踏步，而由於中國對拉丁美洲需求放緩，巴西的前景更加黯淡。
進口縮水，意味著中國的成長趨緩，可能比原先預期的還要嚴重。中國八月的製造業出口新增訂單，是○九年三月以來表現最差。GDP第二季成長七．六％，是金融海嘯以來最低，工業生產至七月為止僅成長了九．二％，遠低於一年前的一四％。近日跌到三年新低的上海股市，正好反映此一趨勢。
相較之下，先進國家股市卻異常熱絡。美國股價一個月內上揚四％，歐洲更上漲六％。
但在摸清楚各國央行救經濟措施的底細之後，投資人似乎也該回復理性了。
儘管各界預期美國聯準會主席柏南克，可能在全球央行年會上宣布第三輪量化寬鬆政策，對美國的衝擊應該不會如前兩次劇烈。
曾在七月宣示「會不計一切手段救歐元」的歐洲央行總裁德拉吉，則沒有出席全球央行年會，因為九月六日的歐洲央行利率決策會議讓他忙得焦頭爛額。
儘管各界相當期待，但投資人應該都已經看出來，央行能做的真的不多。全球真正需要的，是有魄力的政治家大刀闊斧改革。（劉光瑩譯）
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