《全職家教達人》王老師──台大畢,身兼補教與家教全方位經歷，幫您目標達陣！

英國脫歐了　接下來會怎樣？

作者：樂羽嘉編譯 2016-06-24 Web Only

英國透過公投決定脫離歐盟，接下來會怎樣？除了保守黨內的茶壺風暴，卡麥隆還有更多難題要處理。

英國透過公投決定脫離歐盟，接下來會怎樣？對於住在英國的歐盟公民和住在歐盟其他地區的英國人，以及英吉利海峽兩岸的企業來說，不會立刻發生任何事。一切都取決於接下來會花費數年的談判，而沒人能確認協商到底會花多少年，因為唯一的前例是1982年選擇脫歐、人口約5萬的格陵蘭。

英國首相卡麥隆的首要目標是安撫市場。亞洲已經對消息做出反應，英鎊對美元匯率重挫9%，對日圓匯率更重摔13%。日本主要股市重挫近8%，英國時間早上8點開市的倫敦股市和FTSE 100很可能會暴跌。部分專家警告，英鎊整體可能重 摔多達20%。英國財相奧斯本現在必須決定，是否按照公投前的承諾，發布爭議性的「脫歐預算」。

卡麥隆承諾英國將立刻啟動里斯本條約第50條，設定同意脫歐條件的期限為2年，但他自己的相位都未必能保住，能否兌現承諾也令人懷疑。如果卡麥隆下臺，由脫歐派接掌保守黨魁寶座和首相相位，這位新首相可能主張里斯本條約第50條不符合脫歐國家的利益。根據第50條，英國脫歐的條件必須由另外27個歐盟國家同意，不需要英國投票。所以脫歐派可能偏好不啟動第50條，進行非正式協商，另外27國不太可能支持這種做法。

這種談判涉及很長遠的問題，不管哪一個選項都不是十全十美。第一個選項是按照挪威模式，挪威仍是歐洲經濟區（EEA）成員，做為回報挪威必須貢獻歐盟的預算，准許人民自由流動。第二種選項是完全脫離，像美國、中國或其他國家那樣，按照世界貿易組織的規定與歐盟貿易。多數經濟學家都同意，這樣對英國經濟傷害更大。

卡麥隆這個首相會變得很難做，儘管他可能決定至少做完這個夏天，好讓保守黨新黨魁順利接班。新首相候選人必須重振引擎，包括大力鼓吹脫歐的倫敦前市長強生、因支持留歐元氣大傷的財相奧斯本，以及立場較中立的內政大臣梅伊（Theresa May）。

下一任黨魁必須面對一個嚴重分裂的政黨，以及多數支持留歐的國會議員，其中某些人可能打算封殺支持經濟上完全脫歐的計畫。卡麥隆希望他的公投可以一勞永逸地解決保守黨內的歐洲問題，結果完全相反，風暴才正要開始。

What happens now that Britain has voted for Brexit

Jun 24th 2016,

BRITAIN has voted for Brexit. What happens now? Nothing immediate, is the answer for EU nationals living in Britain and Britons living elsewhere in the EU, as well as for businesses on both sides of the Channel. It will all depend on negotiations that could take years—and no one is sure quite how many years, because the only precedent is Greenland, with a population today of around 50,000, which voted to leave in 1982. The first aim of David Cameron, the prime minister, will be to calm the markets. In Asia they have already responded to the news. The pound plunged by 9% against the dollar and as much as 13% against the yen, traditionally a bolthole for anxious investors. Japan’s main stockmarket tumbled by almost 8%. London’s stockmarket opens at 8am, and the FTSE 100 is likely to dive. Some experts warn that sterling could fall by as much as 20% overall. The chancellor of the exchequer, George Osborne, must now decide whether to issue an emergency “Brexit budget” as he controversially promised before the poll.

Mr Cameron has promised that Britain would immediately invoke article 50 of the Lisbon treaty, which sets a two-year timetable to agree the terms of departure. But uncertainty about his own position could raise questions about this. If he steps down and a Brexiteer takes over as leader of the Tory party and as prime minister, he or she is likely to argue that Article 50 is biased against the interests of a country leaving the EU. Under Article 50, the terms of Britain’s departure would be agreed by the other 27 EU countries, without a British vote. So Brexiteers would prefer to negotiate informally, without invoking Article 50. The other 27 countries are unlikely to go for this.

The kind of deal offered is a longer-term question, with neither main option very palatable. The first is to become like Norway, which is a member of the European Economic Area (EEA), in return for which it is required to contribute to the EU’s budget and allow the free movement of people. The second is to opt out entirely, trading with the EU under the rules of the World Trade Organisation like America, China or any other country. Most economists agree that this would do more damage to the British economy.

It will be hard for Mr Cameron himself to continue, though he may decide to remain prime minister over the summer in order to smooth the transition to a new Tory leader. The candidates for that post will be revving up their engines: Boris Johnson, a former mayor of London, triumphant from the Leave victory; the chancellor, George Osborne, perhaps too wounded by his attachment to the Remain side; and compromise candidates such as Theresa May, the home secretary, who made herself scarce during the campaign. The next leader will have to deal with a deeply divided party and with a Parliament whose MPs mostly supported Remain, and some of whom may want to block approval of full economic secession. Mr Cameron hoped his referendum would settle the question of Europe within the Conservative Party once and for all. It has done the opposite, and the storm is only just beginning.