Not so super
By The Economist
From The Economist
Published: June 27, 2013
Jun 15th 2013 |From the print edition
The "third arrow" of reform has fallen well short of its target; time for Shinzo Abe to rethink.
EARLIER this year Shinzo Abe, Japan's prime minister, unveiled the first two "arrows" of his three-point economic plan—monetary easing and fiscal stimulus—and hinted at structural reforms to come. Japan's stockmarket soared by 80% in six months. Mr Abe's approval rating soared, too. Then, after months of euphoria, at the end of May, bond-market jitters about the radical easing plans helped to spark a sell-off in shares. Now Mr Abe's eagerly awaited "third arrow" of structural reforms has fallen well short of the rings, let alone the bull's eye. Indeed, it is so wide of the mark that one is left wondering if Abenomics has failed before it even properly began.
The disappointment is all the greater because Mr Abe's first two efforts were so successful. A weaker yen has boosted exports. The first signs of inflation are appearing in Tokyo—a good thing, given the years of stagnation. The economy grew at an annualised rate of 4.1% in the first quarter as consumers regained confidence. In April Mr Abe signed up to talks on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a regional free-trade area, committing Japan to opening up uncompetitive industries. He also promised to overhaul the electricity industry.
On June 5th Mr Abe let loose his third arrow. It contained some useful measures, such as lifting a ban on the sale of drugs online and obliging the government's pension fund to start holding corporate leaders to account. But much of the rest was old-fashioned industrial policy which has been tried, and has failed, before (see article). Meaningful deregulation, labour-market reform and steps to make agriculture competitive in order to prepare for the TPP were all shelved. Truly bold measures, such as boosting immigration or changing the electoral system to give proper weight to young and urban voters, are off the agenda entirely.
The reason is not hard to spot. Ahead of a crucial election in July, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has been pressing Mr Abe not to offend the farmers, doctors and businessmen on which it has long relied. Yet for those, like this newspaper, who think that Mr Abe has the chance to drag Japan out of its decline, his climb-down is a disappointment. With a public debt of 240% of GDP, printing money and public-works spending can go only so far. Most of what ails Japan, from its insider-dominated labour market to excessive regulation and poor corporate governance, is structural. The excitement has been that Mr Abe seemed to understand this.
Get back into that telephone booth and change clothes
All is not lost. Mr Abe's popularity remains high, and the LDP's rivals are on the ropes. Mr Abe knows that if he continues to balk at structural reform, Japan will go back to being a once-great economy condemned to a slow ebb. He said on June 5th that this first package of reforms is just a "way point", and that, after the election, he will open a "second season" of his growth strategy.
Mr Abe must honour this pledge and face down his own MPs on reforms, as he did when he signed up to talks on the TPP. Now, more than ever, he cannot afford to become distracted by his pet project of changing Japan's post-war constitution. Instead he should first fill his cabinet with reformists and then take on the rest of his party. Issue by issue, he will need to isolate and then defeat the opponents of change.
It is still too early to write off Abenomics. But this was a bad week for Japan.
安倍的第三支箭 令人失望
2013-06-26 天下雜誌 作者：經濟學人
為保七月選情，安倍經濟學三部曲的「第三支箭」，主打安全牌。安倍式改革，究竟會帶領日本穩健復甦，還是註定失敗？
今年年初，日本首相安倍晉三公布經濟重振三部曲的前「兩支箭」。安倍晉三暗示，寬鬆貨幣政策及財政刺激方案先行，結構性改革次之。
此言一出，日本股市六個月內飆漲八○％。安倍晉三的支持度也跟著水漲船高。
五月底，熱潮退去，大幅寬鬆貨幣政策引發日本債券市場震盪，日股也由紅翻黑。
現在，安倍公布市場期待以久的「第三支箭」。這個結構性改革方案，非但沒有命中紅心，更可說是失之千里。
「第三支箭」的失準，令人懷疑安倍經濟學是否在起跑前就註定失敗。安倍經濟學的前兩支箭太過成功，第三支箭更顯得差強人意。
日圓貶值，帶動出口成長。歷經多年通貨緊縮，日本經濟開始出現通貨膨脹跡象。隨著消費者恢復信心，今年第一季日本經濟年成長率達到四．一％。
四月，安倍加入ＴＰＰ（跨太平洋伙伴協定）談判，希望藉由區域性自由貿易協定，促使日本競爭力較低的產業對外開放。安倍也承諾推動電力產業改革。
六月五日，安倍射出第三支箭。部份方案頗有助益，如解除線上藥品銷售禁令、以政府退休基金投資企業股票等。其他多半是以往試過、也失敗過的老套產業政策。
扎實的法規鬆綁、勞動市場改革，以及加入ＴＰＰ所需的農業改革規劃，都被束之高閣。
大刀闊斧的改革措施，如放寬移民、提昇年輕、都市投票者比重的選舉制度變革等，則早已不見蹤影。
原因顯而易見。七月參議院大選前，自民黨一直施壓安倍，不要激怒農夫、醫生、商人等傳統鐵票倉。
包括《經濟學人》在內，許多媒體原先看好安倍帶領日本走出衰退。如今，安倍面對改革的退縮，也帶來一片失望。
日本公共債務規模達ＧＤＰ的二．四倍，擴大印鈔或政府開支，都不是長久之計。
封閉的勞動市場、繁複的法規、疲軟的企業治理，在在顯示日本面對的是結構性的舊疾。市場一片漲聲鼓勵，也是因為安倍看似抓準了病因。
前途並非黯淡無光。安倍的人氣不減，自民黨內無人能敵。安倍深知，一旦放棄結構性改革，即便是曾經偉大的日本，也會註定緩步走向衰弱。
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