Global house prices
By The Economist
From The Economist
Published: August 31, 2012
An era of frothiness is over.
Aug 18th 2012 | from the print edition
AFTER years of dizzying ascents, a big dose of gravity has hit residential-property markets around the world. According to The Economist’s latest round-up, year-on-year prices are now falling in 12 of the 21 countries we track; in five of the other nine, prices are rising at a slower rate than they were a year ago.
Earthbound prices are returning many markets to “fair value”, defined as the long-run average ratio of house prices to disposable income and to rents. Housing is now around or below its fair value in eight countries. But reaching this mark does not mean prices will stop falling. After dropping by a third from their 2006 peak, prices in America now stand at 19% below fair value. The bottom of the market is close, however. The month-on-month Case-Shiller index of 20 cities increased for the fourth consecutive time in May, by 0.9%. Housing sales are picking up, although they remain below their long-run average, and the number of mortgages in foreclosure has fallen to its lowest level for three years. Financing is cheap, too: real 30-year fixed mortgage rates are at 30-year lows.
Other markets are still in free fall. Property prices in Ireland, at the foot of our table since April 2010, continue to plummet. They have now halved in value, after a fivefold rise between 1995 and their 2007 peak. The pace of decline in Spain, a fellow euro-zone sufferer, quickened in the second quarter. Although prices have already fallen by 23% from their peak, they remain well above fair value and the dire state of the Spanish economy, where a quarter of the workforce is unemployed, suggests that prices will keep diving.
Such drops would be more precipitous still were it not for the cushioning effects of ultra-low interest rates on European mortgage-holders. Prices in Britain fell by 0.7% in July, compared with the previous month, taking the total fall since the market peak to a rather modest 13.1%. With many lenders hanging back, sales remain subdued, at around half their 2007 level. The market is heavily reliant on London and the south-east: 47% of residential transactions took place in this part of the country in 2011.
Once-wild Asian markets are also muted. Prices in Hong Kong are now rising at a manageable 6% a year, as opposed to 28% a year just 12 months ago. Price rises in Singapore have slowed in recent months, too. Our index of Chinese prices fell year on year for the fifth month in a row in June. (That may not last, however: prices of new homes rose month on month in 25 of the 70 cities tracked and there is plenty of room for growth.)
Indeed, so subdued is residential property at the moment that the list of the world’s bounciest housing markets has an unusually Germanic flavour. Austrian house-price rises are the only ones in double digits; the Swiss market sits in fourth place. As for Germany itself, prices there have increased by a ground-breaking 5.7% over the past two years after nearly two decades of stagnation. Hopes that a German property boom will unleash spending are slight, however. German regulators are watchful, and owner-occupation in the country stands at just 46%, so any rise in prices has a fainter “wealth effect” than in Britain, say, where 66% of homes are owner-occupied.
from the print edition | Finance and economics
©The Economist Newspaper Limited 2012
全球房價將觸底反彈？
2012-08-22 天下雜誌 504期 作者：經濟學人
全球房價低迷，歐美房價下探「合理價」，連亞洲的房價漲勢也趨緩。到底誰最早看到春燕？
全球房地產終於來了一記重擊。
《經濟學人》最新調查顯示，和去年相比，全球二十一國中，有十二國房價下滑。另有五國，房價也比一年前上升緩慢。
下跌後，從房價跟可支配所得與房租的長期比率來看，房價開始變得「合理」。
調查中，有八國的房價都低於或相當於「合理價」，但這不表示房價會無量下跌。
和○六年的高峰相比，美國房價跌掉了三分之一，現在的房價比「合理價」低了一九％，且即將探底反彈。今年五月，二十個城市的「住宅價格指數（Case-Shiller index）」漲了○．九％，這已經是連續四個月的成長。
房屋銷量也在回復，雖然仍低於長期平均，且房貸抵押的贖回量也是三年最低。融資也很便宜，三十年期固定房貸利率，達到三十年來的低點。
其他市場則還在下跌。
愛爾蘭的房產價格，從一○年四月開始就持續暴跌，現在價值已經跌至○七年的一半。
歐元災區的西班牙，今年第二季房價也快速下跌。儘管房價已跌了二三％，但離「合理價」還有段距離，眼見西班牙失業率高達四分之一，這個價格恐怕還會繼續往下。
歐洲推出超低利率，緩衝了跌勢。七月，英國房價和前月相比，只跌了○．七％，和最高點相比只跌了一三．一％，還算緩和。但銀行收緊銀根，抑制了房屋銷售，銷量大約只有○七年一半。
一度瘋狂的亞洲市場也很沉寂。香港房價穩定地以六％在上升，十二個月前，年增長率曾高達二八％。新加坡這幾個月的房價漲勢也在趨緩。
中國房價的年增長，在六月已經是第五個月連續下跌。然而，調查的七十個城市中，有二十五個新屋價格月成長為正，顯示中國房價還有成長空間。
確實，全球房價低迷，即使是最活躍的市場，都顯得拘謹。奧地利房價是唯一呈兩位數成長的，瑞士的價格成長也排第四位。德國房價在停滯二十年後，兩年來成長了五．七％。（謝明玲譯）
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