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Behavioral bias

By The Economist
From The Economist
Published: August 28, 2012

Aug 24th 2012, 10:00 by M.S.L.J.

IS THIS the first article you read today? If so, there’s a good chance you’ll enjoy it. The order in which people experience things affects their opinion of them: they tend to like the first option best.

This is the result of a new study by Dana Carney of Berkeley’s Haas School of Business and Mahzarin Banaji of Harvard University. To test their hypothesis, the researchers conducted a series of experiments. In one volunteers were shown pictures of two violent criminals and then asked which one deserved parole. Most felt more merciful towards the first mugshot they were shown (different volunteers saw different villains first).

This bias affects commercial decisions, too. Asked which type of chewing gum they preferred, 68% of respondents at a railway station in Boston picked the first stick they were offered. In another experiment, volunteers more often wanted to buy a car from the first salesperson they met rather than the second.

In their paper, entitled “First is Best”, the authors contend that the first option in a series will be “consistently preferred” if the chooser is under time pressure or slightly distracted. Thanks to mobiles, meetings and toddlers that pretty much describes modern life for many people.

Clever companies have noticed, and compete to bump whatever they are selling to the front of the queue. That is why the first slot in an advertisement break on television costs more than the second; it’s roughly 10-15% pricier, according to Jonathan Allan, sales director at Channel 4, a British broadcaster. It is also why an ad that introduces a rival’s product first, even in order to disparage it, may well backfire. Advertising firms themselves like to go first when pitching for an account. “It sets the benchmark for everybody else,” says Bridget Angear of AMV BBDO, an advertising agency.

Being first matters even more online. People are lazy and few bother to scroll through dozens of pages of search results, says Kate Devine of mysinglefriend.com, a dating website. The site uses this observation to reward its most avid customers. When a belle enters search criteria for her beau, possible matches appear in an order determined by the last time these logged on to the site. This is good for traffic, but the keenest suitors may not prove the most suitable.

Badoo, another dating service, locates other users nearby so as to encourage spontaneous meetings. People can pay Badoo £8.49 ($13.46) per month for the privilege of appearing top in a list of users in the area, but rankings will drop as others pay too.

The most important place to be first is on Google’s rankings, which explains why it is under increasing pressure to make its search algorithm more open. The online giant recently started punishing websites that infringe copyright by listing them further down. This may not blast the pirates out of the water, but it will force them to work harder for their booty.

©The Economist Newspaper Limited 2012

研究：人類總選擇第一眼商品

2012-08 Web only 作者：經濟學人

這是你今天讀的第一篇文章嗎？如果是，那你很有可能會喜歡它。人類體驗事物的順序會影響他們對事物的評價，人通常最喜歡第一件東西；這是Dana Carney和Mahzarin Banaji的研究結果。

他們進行了一系列實驗來驗證此假說，其中一項實驗中，志願者會先後看到兩張暴力犯罪者的照片，多數人會比較憐憫第一張照片裡的人（不同的志願者，看到的第一張照片也不同）。

這種傾向也會影響商業性決策。研究人員前往波士頓的車站，問受測者比較喜歡那一種口香糖，68%的人選了第一種；而在另一項實驗中，志願者通常想向最先碰到的銷售人員買車。

兩位研究者在論文中指出，如果選擇者處於時間壓力或有些分心，他們會偏好第一個選項。

這就是為什麼廣告時間第一個欄位的價格高於第二，大約貴上10-15%。此外，就算是為了貶低而先介紹對手產品，也有可能帶來負面效果。廣告企業本身也喜歡當第一個提案人，因為這樣等於是成為所有提案者的基準。

而在網路上，當第一更為重要。約會網站mysinglefriend.com的Kate Devine表示，人很懶，沒幾個人會去瀏覽數十頁的搜尋結果；該網站也以此獎賞最活躍的客戶，將搜尋結果以最近一次登入時間來排序。這對流量有益，但最熱衷的使用者，不一定就是最適合的人選。

最需要當第一的地方，就是Google的排行，這也說明了為什麼許多人要求Google讓搜尋演算法更加透明。Google最近開始懲罰侵犯著作權的網站，進一步降低它們的排行；這或許無法讓盜版完全消失，但這會讓盜版網站更難散佈盜版品。（黃維德譯）