《全職家教達人》王老師──台大畢,身兼補教與家教全方位經歷，幫您目標達陣！

Buy now at 1983 prices

By The Economist
From The Economist
Published: October 25, 2013

Oct 19th 2013 | HONG KONG |From the print edition

After 30 years, Hong Kong's peg to the American dollar is still going strong.

"WHATEVER exchange-rate system a country has, it will wish at some times that it had another one," according to Stanley Fischer, a former central banker. Many countries find it hard to cope with a floating currency and even harder to stick to a fixed one. It is therefore remarkable that Hong Kong this week celebrated the 30th anniversary of its currency's peg to the dollar.

This crude but effective system was adopted on October 17th 1983 to stop a currency crisis. Since then it has survived three American recessions, SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) and Soros (ie, George), a fabled currency speculator, who attacked the peg during the Asian financial crisis.

In recent years Hong Kong's peg has come under upward, not downward pressure. In maintaining its fixed rate to the dollar, Hong Kong has imported the Federal Reserve's easy monetary policy despite its healthier economy. The result has been high inflation and surging home prices. Even as its economy has diverged from America's, it has converged with that of the rest of China. Yet the Hong Kong dollar and the yuan have been growing apart. The Hong Kong dollar's peg was once also a tight link to the yuan, which was itself pegged to America's currency. But since China modified the peg, the yuan has appreciated by over a third.

As Mr Fischer suggested, some economists now wish that Hong Kong had another system. It could, for example, let its exchange rate crawl upwards to curb inflation, as Singapore does. Or it could track the rising yuan. Eventually it could even adopt the mainland's currency; over 10% of bank deposits in Hong Kong are already in yuan.

But these alternatives have drawbacks of their own. China may now dominate Hong Kong's trade, but much of that trade is still priced in dollars, points out Li-Gang Liu of ANZ, a bank. Besides, the yuan's value is still fixed each morning by China's central bank, and yuan assets are fenced in by capital controls. Pegging to an inconvertible yuan could destroy Hong Kong's role as an international financial centre, Mr Liu argues.

Over time Hong Kong has adapted to some of the peg's constraints. Its exchange rate may be rigid, but its other prices and wages are remarkably flexible. During the financial crisis, even senior civil servants took a pay cut. This flexibility allows the economy to adjust quickly to cyclical ups and downs without the help of an independent monetary policy.

Prices, particularly for property, do sometimes take on a life of their own. But a more flexible exchange rate is not enough by itself to prevent asset-price booms: Singapore's house prices have also soared despite its strengthening currency. And in some cases the currency itself can be the asset that takes off. The Swiss franc, for example, strengthened dramatically during the euro crisis, prompting its central bank to intervene. As nearby countries like India and Indonesia fret about capital outflows and plunging currencies, the stability offered by Hong Kong's peg looks as good on its 30th birthday as it ever has.

30年後　港幣緊盯美元政策不變

2013-10-25 Web only 作者：經濟學人

前央行行長費雪（Stanley Fischer）表示，不管一個國家用的是何種匯率系統，在某個時刻，它都會希望自己用的是另一套系統。許多國家發現，維持浮動匯率並不容易，維持固定匯率則更為困難。因此，香港本周慶祝緊盯美元30週年，可謂十分傲人的成就。

這套簡單但有效的系統於1983年10月17日開始施行，目的為終止貨幣危機。自那時開始，它熬過了3次美國衰退、SARS，以及索羅斯的攻擊。

最近幾年，香港的緊盯美元政策面臨的是上升而非下滑壓力。香港為了維持與美元的固定匯率，即使自身經濟體質較佳，還是輸入了聯準會的寬鬆貨幣政策。香港經濟逐步與美國脫勾，並與中國經濟靠攏。不過，港幣和人民幣卻也漸行漸遠；過去，港幣緊盯美元，等同於與緊盯美元的人民幣建立緊密連結，但在中國修改其緊盯政策之後，人民幣已增值超過三分之一。

一如費雪所說，部分經濟學家現在希望香港能採行另一套系統。例如，香港可以讓匯率上升以壓抑通膨，就像新加坡一樣。或是讓港幣緊盯人民幣，最後甚至可以採用人民幣；目前香港已有超過10％的銀行存款是人民幣了。

不過，這些替代方案都有各自的缺點。澳盛銀行的劉利剛指出，中國或許主導著香港的貿易，但多數交易仍舊是以美元計價。此外，人民幣的價值，仍舊是每天早上由中國央行制訂，而且人民幣計價的資產受制於資本管控。劉利剛認為，緊盯難以兌換的人民幣，可能會讓香港失去國際金融中心的地位。

香港已適應了部分緊盯美元帶來的限制。其匯率或許僵固，但其他價格和薪資極具彈性；在金融危機之時，就連資深公務人員都接受減薪。這樣的彈性，讓香港經濟得以在沒有獨立貨幣政策的協助下，快速適應經濟周期。

價格、特別是不動產的價格，有時確實會不受控制。但單靠更具彈性的匯率，亦無法避免資產價格大漲：新加坡貨幣走強，但房價還是快速上漲。而在某些情況下，貨幣本身就是飛漲的資產。例如，瑞士法郎在歐元危機之時便快速上漲，促使其央行介入。而在印度、印尼等鄰近國家擔心資金外流、貨幣貶值之際，香港緊盯政策帶來的穩定，就和過去30年來一樣令人安心。（黃維德譯）