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Gearing up for business

By The Economist
From The Economist
Published: October 17, 2013

Oct 12th 2013 |From the print edition

Europe's new rescue fund will have plenty to keep it busy.

THE European Stability Mechanism (ESM)— the euro zone's permanent rescue fund—made a successful debut in the capital markets this week, raising €7 billion ($9.5 billion) through a five-year bond. It has already borrowed almost €42 billion in the money markets since January. Judging by the potential calls on its resources, which include a third bail-out for Greece, a second one for Portugal and a first for Slovenia, this capital-raising will be the first of many.

The ESM replaces the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), itself a replacement for the improvisation behind the first Greek bail-out, in May 2010, which had to be financed through bilateral loans from other euro-zone states, along with lending from the International Monetary Fund. The EFSF was used for the second Greek bail-out and contributed towards the Irish and Portuguese rescues. These commitments came to €192 billion, of which all but €18 billion has been disbursed.

Any new bail-outs will now be financed through the ESM. The fund can lend up to €500 billion in total. It has already earmarked €100 billion to pay for the recapitalisation of the shaky Spanish financial sector (of which over €40 billion has been drawn down) and €9 billion for Cyprus, leaving €391 billion in the kitty.

The creation of a euro-zone fund is tricky because in effect the northern creditor states are supporting the debtor nations of the south. The EFSF's design was flawed because its borrowing was backed by guarantees from the euro-zone states, some of which were in no condition to honour their pledges. The ESM has a sturdier set-up because it is backed by paid-in capital contributed by euro-zone members. They have already coughed up €48 billion, which will rise to €80 billion next spring. And they have pledged additional capital of up to €620 billion if necessary, taking the total to €700 billion.

The ESM can help governments in trouble through a variety of means. For those cut off from the markets, it can extend loans. For those that have some access, it can buy up to half the value of bonds they are issuing in the primary market. It can also provide credit lines as a backstop to governments who fear an investor strike. In return, the countries being assisted must meet strict economic and fiscal conditions.

Although the ESM can intervene in secondary markets it seems unlikely to do so following the pledge of the European Central Bank (ECB) a year ago to make unlimited purchases of government bonds for countries under siege. The ECB is far better placed than the ESM to cow investors because it can print money to buy the bonds. But the rescue fund will still play a crucial part in the ECB's putative bond-buying, because it will be conducted only for countries that are getting help from the ESM and so subject to its conditions.

The most contentious use of the ESM is to recapitalise banks directly rather than by lending to governments to pass on to them, as it is doing in Spain. But the amount of money that can be used for this purpose has been limited to €60 billion, less than Ireland alone had to stuff into its banks. As things stand, it will not be available to fill capital holes unearthed by the ECB's root-and-branch review of euro-zone bank assets next year. This is because Germany and other northern creditor nations do not want banks' bad debts in weak peripheral countries dumped on the fund. That may, in turn, prevent an adequate response to the central bank's inspection of Europe's sickly banks.

歐債危機解除有望？

2013-10-17 Web only 作者：經濟學人

歐洲穩定機制本周成功地在資本市場登台，以5年期債券募集70億歐元。自今年1月開始，歐洲穩定機制已經在現金市場借款近420億歐元；從各方的資源需求來看，包括希臘的第三次援助、葡萄牙的第二次與斯洛維尼亞的第一次，接下來應該還會進行更多次資本募集。

歐洲穩定機制取代了歐洲金融穩定基金，歐洲金融穩定基金本身，則是為了取代希臘首次援助背後的臨時性機制，該機制的資金來自其他歐元區國家的雙邊貸款和國際貨幣基金組織的借款。歐洲金融穩定基金用於二次希臘援助，亦貢獻於愛爾蘭和葡萄牙援助；這些援助總額達1920億歐元，其中只有180億歐元尚未支付。

現在，任何新的援助都會透過歐洲穩定機制融資。歐洲穩定機制總放款額為5,000億歐元，其中1,000億歐元會用於西班牙金融部門的資本重整（其中超過400億已然支出），90億歐元會用於塞普勒斯，額度剩下3,910億歐元。

創建歐元區基金十分困難，因為那實際上等於由北方放款國家資助南方的貸款國家。歐洲金融穩定基金的設計瑕疪在於，其借款是由歐元區國家擔保，而部分國家其實無法信守其承諾。歐洲穩定機制的設計較為堅實，則是因為它是由歐元區會員國付出的資本作為擔保。歐元區會員國已付出480億歐元，明年春天將增至800億歐元；而且它們還承諾會在必要之時，再支付最高達6,200億歐元的資本，讓總額增至7,000億歐元。

歐洲穩定機制可以透過各種方式協助陷入麻煩的政府。若政府無法進入市場，它可以提供貸款；若政府尚能進入市場，它最多可以在一級市場買進半數政府發行的公債；它也可以為擔心投資人發動攻擊的政府提供信貸額度。接受協助的政府，則得達成嚴格的經濟和財政條件。

歐洲穩定機制雖然可以介入次級市場，但在歐洲央行於一年前承諾無上限購買問題國家的政府公債之後，它似乎不太可能這麼做；歐洲央行比歐洲穩定機制更能嚇阻投資人，因為歐洲央行可以印鈔買公債。不過，歐洲穩定基制在歐洲央行公債收購方面仍扮演重要角色，唯有接受歐洲穩定機制協助、受制於援助條件的國家，其公債才能由歐洲央行收購。

最受爭議的歐洲穩定機制用途，則是直接協助銀行資本重整，而非放款給政府，再由政府將資金交給銀行，西班牙的銀行資本重整就是如此。不過，能用於此目的資金上限僅餘600億歐元，比愛爾蘭得投入銀行部門的資金還要少。以目前情況來看，明年歐洲央行的歐洲銀行資產檢查之後，這些資金應該無法用於填補檢查所開出的破洞，原因在於，德國等北方放款國，不希望問題國家銀行的壞債落到歐洲穩定機制肩頭上；這或許會讓歐洲無法針對其問題銀行作出有效反應。（黃維德譯）