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The second wave

By The Economist
From The Economist
Published: October 31, 2013

Oct 26th 2013 | SHANGHAI |From the print edition

What to make of Chinese firms' latest foreign purchases.

HAS China arrived at its Rockefeller Centre moment? In the late 1980s as Japan's miracle economy was soaring, the Mitsubishi Estate Company bought the Rockefeller Centre in Manhattan, a landmark complex built by the eponymous oil and banking clan. Alas, Mitsubishi had to sell, at a big loss, after Japan's asset bubble popped. Now it is Chinese firms that are seeking such trophies in New York.

Fosun International, a Chinese conglomerate, has just agreed to pay $725m for 1 Chase Manhattan Plaza, a skyscraper near Wall Street, commissioned by David Rockefeller and completed in 1961. This follows a recent investment by Greenland, a Chinese state-owned firm, in Atlantic Yards, a big development in Brooklyn. Earlier this year a consortium involving Zhang Xin, a founder of Soho China, a private property giant, bought a stake in the General Motors Building in Manhattan.

It does not necessarily follow that this assault on New York will also end in tears. Whereas Mitsubishi overpaid, the Chinese investors seem to be negotiating reasonable deals. Michael Cohen of Colliers International, a property-services firm, says that although Fosun must modernise the ageing Chase tower, "The price per square foot appears to be a bargain."

A shift is under way in China's overseas direct investment (ODI), which is growing fast but is still dwarfed by foreign investment into China (see chart). The first wave largely involved state-owned firms, and was directed at acquiring energy, minerals and land in poor countries. Resource insecurity lingers—witness the 20% stake taken this week by Chinese state firms in Libra, a giant Brazilian offshore oilfield—but it is no longer the driving force. New motives propel the second wave.

China's government is keen to boost the miserable yields it gets on its overseas investments, argues Thilo Hanemann of Rhodium Group, a consultant. So it is now encouraging state firms to invest in property in prime locations, and in infrastructure and other assets in mature markets. In Britain, they have invested in Thames Water and Heathrow airport. This week the British government said a consortium involving Chinese state firms could build a nuclear-power station in the west of England.

Private firms seeking brands and technology are also playing a big role in this second wave. Geely, a Chinese carmaker, bought Volvo of Sweden. Dongfeng, another Chinese firm, is said to be considering buying a stake in Peugeot-Citroën, an ailing French carmaker. On October 22nd Alibaba, a Chinese e-commerce giant, said it would open a new division in America to invest exclusively in internet start-ups. And Lenovo, a computer-maker, is preparing a bid for Canada's BlackBerry.

As a result, the share of Chinese ODI going to rich countries has shot up from just a tenth in 2002 to two-thirds last year. Like Japan before it, China could yet experience a crash. But the shift in investment from free-spending state firms seeking resources to frugal private ones chasing markets and innovation is a positive sign.

中國熱錢「收買」全世界

2013-10-31 Web only 作者：經濟學人

中國是否來到了它的洛克斐勒中心時刻？1980年代末期、日本經濟奇蹟之際，三菱不動產買下了曼哈頓地標洛克斐勒中心；可惜的是，日本資產泡沫破裂之後，三菱被迫大賠出售。現在，輪到中國企業在紐約尋找戰利品了。

復星國際最近同意以7.25億美元，買下位於華爾街附近、落成於1961年的摩天大樓：第一大通曼哈頓廣場。在這之前，中國國有企業綠地集團，投資了布魯克林的大型開發計畫亞特蘭大場。今年稍早，Soho中國的創立者張欣亦加入投資團，買下曼哈頓通用汽車大樓的股份。

這一波紐約入侵不見得會以流淚收場。三菱當時的買價過高，中國投資人則談到了似乎十分合理的交易。不動產服務公司高力國際（Colliers Internationl）的柯恩（Michael Cohen）表示，雖然復興國際必須將老舊的第一大通現代化，但以每平方呎的單價來看，這應該是筆十分划算的交易。

中國的海外直接投資已經開始改變方向。中國海外投資成長快速，但還是比不上中國的外國直接投資。第一波海外投資潮主由國營企業帶動，目標為取得窮國的能源、礦藏和土地；但那已經不是主要動力了，第二波海外投資潮是出於新的動機。

榮鼎（Rhodium Group）顧問的海因曼（Thilo Hanemann）認為，中國政府非常希望增加海外投資的獲利。因此，現在中國政府鼓勵國營企業投資重要地點的不動產，以及成熟市場的基礎建設等資產。中國國營企業已投資了英國的泰晤士水利公司和希斯洛機場，本周，英國政府宣佈，中國國營企業參與的投資團可能會在西英格蘭建造核電廠。

尋求品質和科技的私人企業，在第二波海外投資潮中亦扮演著重要角色。吉利汽車買下了瑞典的富豪汽車（Volvo），據傳東風汽車亦有意買下標致雪鐵龍（Peugeot-Citroën）的股份。10月22日，阿里巴巴表示將於美國成立新部門，專責投資網路新創企業；聯想也準備向黑莓開價。

因此，中國海外直接投資流往富有國家的比例，從2002年的十分之一快速升至去年的三分之二。就像之前的日本，中國也有可能遇上崩盤；不過，投資從尋求資源轉向追求市場和革新、從恣意揮霍的國營企業轉向錙銖必較的私人企業，仍舊是個十分可喜的現象。（黃維德譯）