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The world is less connected than it was in 2007

By The Economist
From The Economist
Published: January 09, 2013

Dec 22nd 2012 | NEW YORK | from the print edition

HOW integrated countries are with the rest of the world varies more than you might expect. And the world is less integrated in 2012 than it was back in 2007. These are the conclusions of the latest DHL Global Connectedness Index, which found that the Netherlands is the most globalised of 140 countries (see chart), just ahead of Singapore; landlocked Burundi is the least. (North Korea was not ranked.)

The index measures both the depth of a country's connectedness (ie, how much of its economy is internationalised) and its breadth (how many countries it connects with). The economic crisis of 2008 made connections both shallower and narrower. The depth measure has rebounded since 2009, and is now 10% higher than it was in 2005—though it remains below what it was in 2007. But the breadth of connectedness has continued to slip, and is now 4% lower than in 2005.

At first, as the economic crisis took hold, both trade and capital flows became less globalised, but since 2009 trade has bounced back whereas capital flows have continued to become less globalised, says DHL. This seems to reflect a fall in the number of places into which companies from any given country are willing to put their foreign direct investment.

Even the Netherlands could benefit a lot by becoming more globalised, says Pankaj Ghemawat of IESE Business School, who oversees the index. Mr Ghemawat conducts surveys of popular views of globalisation. He finds that people consistently assume that the world is much more interconnected than it really is. This is why they underestimate the gains that could be made by further globalisation, he argues. Intriguingly, no group overestimates global connectedness more than company bosses. Perhaps this is why their efforts to expand abroad so often stumble.

from the print edition | Business

全球化正在倒退中

2012-12-26 天下雜誌 513期 作者：經濟學人

一項最新研究，打破了許多人對全球化的迷思。原來，國家之間，並不如想像中那麼相互通連。

世界各國之間，究竟有多一體化？這個問題的答案，年年不斷在變動。

國際快遞巨頭ＤＨＬ最新發表的「全球連通性指數」（Global Connectedness Index）報告發現，二○一二年的全球化程度，不進反退，落後於○七年。

在一四○國中，荷蘭的全球化程度最高，新加坡第二。東非小國蒲隆地敬陪末座（北韓未列入評比）。

這項研究衡量一國與全球連通的「深度」（國際化的程度）和「廣泛度」（與多少國家連通）。

結論指出，○八年的金融海嘯，導致各國的連通性變「淺」、也變「窄」。儘管自○九年以來，「深度」略有回升，但是「廣泛度」持續下滑，甚至低於○五年的水準。

ＤＨＬ分析，金融海嘯爆發時，貿易和資金流動的全球化程度，雙雙降低。隨後，貿易開始復甦，但資金流動依舊不如以往熱絡，反映出企業願意前往投資的海外據點，已不再像過去那麼多。

主持這項研究的巴塞隆納ＩＥＳＥ商學院全球策略教授葛馬萬（Pankaj Ghemawat），同時也調查人們對於全球化的認知。

他發現，大家常以為我們的世界已經很全球化，因而低估了加快全球化可能帶來的好處。所以，即便是第一名的荷蘭，都還有進一步全球化的空間。（吳怡靜譯）