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The Bank of Japan-When easing gets hard

As monetary policy hits the buffers, policymakers blame big companies

Apr 30th 2016 | TOKYO | From the print edition

HARUHIKO KURODA added another instance to his record of wrong-footing financial markets this week. Confronted with a rising yen and tumbling inflation, the thinking went, the central-bank governor had little choice but to shore up the credibility of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) with even looser monetary policy. But in the end the BoJ kept its stance unchanged. Markets reacted swiftly after the decision on April 28th: the yen jumped and the Nikkei 225 stockmarket index slumped.

Since introducing an interest rate of -0.1% on excess bank reserves in late January, Mr Kuroda has been hauled before parliament no fewer than 32 times to explain himself. Perhaps that has left him gun shy. Or perhaps the BoJ’s inaction is a hint to Shinzo Abe, the prime minister, that monetary policy should bear less of the burden of dragging Japan’s economy out of the slough of low inflation and growth.

Many economists reckon, nonetheless, that the BoJ will have little choice but to ease again soon. Mr Abe’s policies have failed to produce much growth or inflation, partly due to a falling oil price and China’s slowdown. GDP contracted by an annualised 1.1% in the last quarter of 2015 and is expected to continue fluctuating around zero in the first half of 2016.

Some hopeful data emerged before the BoJ’s monetary-policy meeting, notably that industrial production rose month on month in March by 3.6%, the biggest leap in nearly five years. But growth in the second quarter will probably suffer from recent earthquakes in Kumamoto prefecture, which disrupted industrial supply chains.

Worse, Japan is once again mired in deflation. Core CPI, which excludes fresh food, fell by 0.3% in March year on year, the biggest drop since the BoJ launched its programme of easing three years ago. Meanwhile the BoJ’s preferred measure, which strips out fresh food and energy, rose by 1.1%. Yet the drops in the headline measures have dented households’ and firms’ expectations of inflation. The BoJ once again cut its forecasts for growth and price rises.

What especially worries policymakers is that the yen has risen by nearly a tenth against the dollar since late January, reversing a long decline as the BoJ embraced quantitative easing (see chart). If anything, Japan’s trade and current-account surplus signal further currency strength over the rest of the year, reinforced by the Federal Reserve’s failure to signal another imminent rate rise at its meeting this week (see article).

All in all, the power of the BoJ to overcome structural imbalances in Japan’s economy seems to be diminishing. Large firms have continued to add to their hoards of cash. They now hold close to ¥250 trillion ($2.2 trillion) in cash, a massive 50% of GDP. Capital investment by firms is 7% below its level eight years ago and the gap between corporate cashflow and investment is at record levels, notes Richard Katz of the Oriental Economist, a newsletter.

Nor have firms raised wages much in spite of a tight job market. Pay rises in the order of 5-10% this year are required to boost household consumption, economists argue. Instead, workers at large firms are on track to receive a lower pay rise—an average hike in overall base pay and seniority-related pay of 2.19%—than they did in the previous two years.

Many in the government feel let down by the corporate sector, says an official. Mr Abe has improved the environment for big business with (until recently) a sharply lower yen and reduced corporate-tax rates. But big firms argue, in circular fashion, that their spending is inhibited by Japan’s uncertain growth prospects.

Mr Abe is now likely to use fiscal policy to try and sustain some level of growth. In May he is expected to postpone a rise in Japan’s consumption tax from 8% to 10%, which is scheduled for April 2017. A large supplementary budget package is in the works. But all that will add to worries about the size of Japan’s national debt, which is more than 240% of GDP.

Some economists believe that the BoJ will become the first big central bank to resort to “helicopter money”—printing money to fund government spending or to give people cash. Some argue the bank is already deploying something close to ’copter cash by sucking up so many government bonds. But it does not buy them directly, and Mr Kuroda recently said he would not countenance outright helicopter money. It was not long ago, of course, that he categorically ruled out negative rates.

寬鬆困難　決策者轉而怪罪大企業

作者：黃維德編譯 2016-05-05 經濟學人

日本央行行長黑田東彥，讓金融市場顯得措手不及。日元升值、通膨下滑之際，許多人認為日本央行除了再次放寬貨幣政策之外，別無其他選擇。最終，日本央行並沒有這麼做，促使日元大幅升值、日經225指數重跌。

自推出超額銀行準備金負利率至今，黑田已多次前往國會為此辯護，這或許讓他有些不敢行動。又或許，日本央行選擇不行動，是在向首相安倍晉三釋出訊息，亦即，在拉升通膨和刺激成長方面，貨幣政策不該扮演如此吃重的角色。

然而，許多經濟學家相信，日本央行除了再次放寬貨幣政策之外，實在沒有其他選擇。

安倍政策無法有效帶動成長和通膨，2015年第四季的年化GDP成長率為-1.1%，預期2016年上半也會在零成長率附近。在日本央行貨幣政策會議之前，部分數據的表現相當不錯，但熊本地震打亂了產業供應鏈，可能會影響第二季成長。

更糟的是，日本已再次陷入通縮。

最讓決策者擔心的則是，自1月底至今，日元對美元的升值，扭轉了日本央行推出量化寬鬆後的趨勢；而從日本的貿易經常帳餘額、聯準會無意升息來看，日元今年應該會繼續走強。

總體言之，日本央行處理日本經濟結構性失衡的能力似乎不斷在下滑。大企業不願投資、持續增加手中的現金；縱使勞動市場緊繃，企業也沒有提高太多薪資。

有位官員表示，許多政府成員對企業部門的表現相當失望。安倍藉由日元貶值和調降企業稅，改善了大企業的商業環境，但大企業表示，它們的支出受制於日本成長前景的不確定性。現在，安倍可能會靠財政政策來維持一定程度的成長，但那只會讓人更加擔憂日本的國債問題。

部分經濟學家相信，日本央行會是第一間採行「直升機灑錢」手段的央行，也就是印鈔票支持政府支出，或是直接將現金交到民眾手中；部分人認為，日本央行吸收了大量政府公債，已經相當接近直升機灑錢。

不過，日本央行並未直接購入公債，黑田近期亦表示不支持徹底的直升機灑錢。當然，不久之前，黑田亦曾明確地反對負利率措施。