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What happens now that Britain has triggered Article 50?

It is just the start of a long process of tough negotiation—in which Britain will be the demandeur

Mar 29th 2017 by J.P.

Theresa May, the British prime minister, has triggered Article 50, the legal method by which a country leaves the European Union. The bill giving her the constitutional authority to do so had become law on March 16th. Under Article 50’s terms, any country invoking it automatically leaves the EU after two years, unless the other 27 unanimously agree to extend that deadline. Yet this is but a first step in a negotiating process that is likely to take longer than two years to complete in detail. The invocation of Article 50 does not even guarantee that there will be a deal between Britain and the rest of the EU: it merely initiates negotiations.

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Even that will be contentious, for at least two separate negotiations are involved. The main Article 50 one will be about divorce terms, including over money, assets and liabilities, regularising the position of EU and British nationals in each other’s countries and the future of EU agencies in Britain. This divorce has to be approved by a “qualified majority” of member countries, excluding Britain, and approved by the European Parliament. A second negotiation will be about future trade relations between Britain and the EU. That deal will take longer, not least because it requires the unanimous approval of all EU member countries plus ratification by all national and regional parliaments, as well as by the European Parliament.

The European Council of heads of government, chaired by Donald Tusk, will now fix the broad terms for a negotiation to be led by the European Commission in Brussels. Jean-Claude Juncker, the commission president, has asked Michel Barnier, a former French foreign minister, to head the commission’s team. The European Parliament has appointed Guy Verhofstadt, a former Belgian prime minister, as its Brexit negotiator. The two sides have very different views on the timing and sequencing of the talks. Mrs May wants the divorce and the new trading relationship to be negotiated in parallel, and reckons both can be sorted out within two years. Mr Barnier says the divorce must come first—he is already talking of a €60bn ($65bn) exit bill for Britain to pay its share of outstanding liabilities—and the long-term trading relationship, which may take more than two years to agree, second. Another complication is that several countries face elections this year, including France in May and Germany in September. That could further shorten an already tight timetable.

Article 50 puts the rest of the EU in a stronger bargaining position than Britain, not least because of its two-year deadline. In an effort to shore up her position, Mrs May has insisted that no deal would be better than a bad deal. But other EU leaders disagree. If Britain were to leave the EU without a deal, it would still face demands for money, and its trade would revert to normal World Trade Organisation terms, which would imply tariffs on exports of cars, car parts, pharmaceuticals, farm products and much else, as well as non-tariff barriers for financial and other services. It is true that the rest of the EU would suffer from such a chaotic Brexit, but Britain would suffer more. If she is to secure a mutually beneficial deal, Mrs May will have to soften her demands more than her fellow EU leaders will have to. 

Dig deeper
Why the “WTO option” for Brexit will prove tricky (Jan 2017)
The difference between Europe’s “customs union” and “single market”(October 2016)
What is populism? (Dec 2016)

Update (12.30pm, March 29th): The tenses in this post have been updated to reflect the official triggering of Article 50. 

英國「分手中」，接下來會發生什麼事？

黃維德編譯 2017-03-30 經濟學人

英國首相梅伊（Theresa May）已啟動里斯本條約第50條，也就是脫離歐盟的法律手段。根據第50條的條文，任何啟動此條的國家，都會在2年後自動脫離歐盟，除非另外27國一致同意展延期限。

這只是協商程式的第一步，而協商很可能得花超過2年的時間才能完成。啟動第50條，並不代表英國和歐盟一定能達成協議；它僅只是啟動了協商。

就連啟動協商一事都會充滿爭議，因為那牽涉了至少兩項不同的協商。

主要的第50條協商內容為離婚條款，包括金錢、資產、負債、規範雙方民眾在對方境內的地位，以及位於英國的歐盟單位的未來等；離婚協議必須通過「條件多數」會員國核可，也得通過歐洲議會核可。

第二項協商的內容為英國與歐盟間的未來貿易關係。此協商會花費較長的時間，原因之一即為，它不但需要全數歐盟會員國一致核可，也需要獲得歐盟議員及各國、各地區議會的批准。

歐洲理事會接下來將確立協商的大致條款，協商則是由歐盟委員會主導。歐盟委員會主席容克（Jean-Claude Juncker）已請來法國前外長巴尼耶（Michel Barnier）擔任歐盟委員會的首席協商人員，歐洲議會亦已指派前比利時首相伏思達（Guy Verhofstadt）為其脫歐協商人員。

英歐雙方對協商的時間和順序，抱有極為不同的看法。梅伊希望能同時展開離婚和新貿易關係的協商；巴尼耶則表示，必須先進行離婚協商（他已經指出，英國得支付600億歐元，以負擔尚未盡完的責任），再進行需時可能超過2年的長期貿易關係協商。

另一個複雜之處在於，法國、德國等幾個國家都在今年舉行選舉，那可能會使已經十分緊繃的時間更加急迫。

第50條會讓其餘歐盟國家的談判籌碼高過英國，而且不只是因為它規定的2年期限。梅伊堅稱「沒有協議」優於「爛協議」，好提高自身的談判實力。

但其他歐盟領袖並不這麼認為；若英國在沒有協議的情況下脫離歐盟，歐盟仍舊會要求英國支付款項，英國與歐盟間的貿易則會回歸世貿組織的一般條款，也就是說，汽車、汽車零件、藥品、農產等諸多出口品，全都得支付關稅，金融等服務產業亦得面對非關稅壁壘。

若英國脫歐真的如此混亂，其餘歐盟國家確實會受傷害，但英國受到的衝擊更大。梅伊如果想達成互蒙其利的協議，必須比其他歐盟領袖做出更多讓步才行。（黃維德編譯）