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Speed isn't everything

By The Economist
From The Economist
Published: May 14, 2013

Apr 20th 2013 |From the print edition

The hidden consolation of disappointing Chinese growth is a more modern economy.

FOR years, critics of China have complained that it prizes speed over balance. The economy's expansion has been heedless as well as relentless, breakneck as well as headlong. Rapid development has turned fishing villages into factory towns and factory towns into financial hubs, but it has also taken a toll. Heavy investment has crowded out consumption, and heavy industry has muscled out services, as if making stuff mattered more than serving people.

This week, however, China faced a less familiar complaint: it is not growing fast enough. New figures showed the economy expanding by 7.7% in the year to the first quarter, marginally slower than the previous quarter's pace and notably slower than expected. The loss of momentum was a puzzle, given the spectacular surge in credit in January and March (see article). The fact it came at the same time as a lull in the American economy (see article) and a relatively gloomy set of forecasts for most big economies from the IMF did not help the mood. China's stockmarket reacted unhappily.

However, just as fast growth masked underlying strains, so China's disappointing growth has obscured two encouraging trends that may matter hugely for China's future. Consumption, although still low, made a bigger contribution than investment to China's growth in the first quarter. That sustains a break with investment-led growth that dates back to 2011. Even more notable, services have trumped industry's contribution to GDP in the past three quarters and have almost matched it over the past four—which has not happened since the 1960s.

In short China is modernising, becoming more like a Western economy, with consumers and services to the fore. And these two promising trends reinforce each other. Because services are more labour-intensive than industry, their growth boosts wages and household income. Fatter pay-packets then encourage consumption, and consumer spending, in turn, favours services. In economic life, as one economist has put it, "Result becomes cause and cause becomes result."

Some of the results reflect political causes. By passing stronger labour laws in 2008, China's government bolstered workers' bargaining power and thus their consumer power. By allowing its exchange rate to appreciate, it has directed China's energies inward, away from exports and towards services, which are often consumed at the point of production. The regime is also busy easing the fiscal burden on the sector, replacing a clumsy turnover tax with a lighter value-added tax.

Slower can be better

If China's growth slows too sharply, throwing lots of people out of work, such structural improvements will count for little. Better balance is scant consolation to an economy on its knees. But the slowdown has not yet hurt employment. According to Nomura, a bank, the number of job vacancies per applicant in the first quarter was 1.1, the highest since records began in 2001. Urban employment grew by 3m.

This tightness in the labour market suggests that China's economy is operating close to its limits. "Ultra high-speed growth" is no longer feasible, let alone desirable, as Xi Jinping, China's new president, points out. Rather than chasing growth at any cost, his government has imposed regulations on shadow banking, persevered with curbs on property speculation, and clamped down on government extravagance, such as the schmoozing and boozing, kowtowing and Maotai-ing that accompanies so much official business.

As China's economy matures, its pace will slow. Fighting this economic law will only invite inflation, excess and harder reckonings. Growing fast is a poor alternative to growing up.

經濟放緩　不是壞事

2013-05-01 天下雜誌 521期 作者：經濟學人

中國第一季GDP雖然令人失望，但服務業的貢獻超越製造業、消費貢獻超越投資，反而提升工資、釋出職缺，經濟趨向成熟。

經濟放慢不一定是壞事。

過去，中國重視快速成長勝於平衡發展。漁村變成工廠，又變身金融中心。高額投資壓縮消費，密集工業化使得服務業被邊緣化。

但現在情況變了。第一季，中國GDP成長七．七％，低於預估，也略低於去年第四季。

這讓人百思不解。因為一月和三月，才見過資金湧現的好日子。現在，中國失速、股市受挫，美國和國際貨幣基金（ＩＭＦ）預測下的大型經濟體也表現不佳。

不過，快速成長有隱藏的問題，成長放慢也有看不見的好處，可能對未來有更深遠的影響。

第一季，中國消費對GDP的貢獻，首度超越投資。過去四季，服務業和製造業的貢獻幾乎打平。只算過去三季，服務業更是超越製造業。這是六○年代至今的第一回。

意思是，中國愈來愈像現代化的西方國家，消費和服務業成為經濟的火車頭。服務業比製造業需要勞工，有助於提升工資和家庭收入。收入愈高，消費力愈強，是值得鼓勵的正向循環。

中國怎麼做到的？主要是政策方向正確。

○八年，中國實施勞動合同法，提升勞工談判力，間接加強消費力。經過匯改，人民幣升值，出口不再吃香，更多人投入本地的服務業。中國更進行稅改，從營業稅改徵增值稅，也有很大的幫助。

經濟「成熟」比「成長」好

如果中國是硬著陸，激烈的結構性改變，反而會增加失業人口。幸好，目前沒這種跡象。日本野村投資銀行指出，第一季的職缺數比應徵者多一成，創下○一年以來的新高。都市就業量多了三百萬人。

勞動市場吃緊，表示中國的經濟接近極限。新上任的國家主席習近平說，中國無法像過去超快速成長。與其盲目追求成長，習近平規範影子銀行和房地產投機行為，同時要求政府減少開支。

隨著經濟成熟，成長必然放慢。這是經濟學的法則，抵死不從只會造成通膨和浪費。經濟成熟，最終還是比經濟成長來得好。（周原譯）