The rich world's economy
By The Economist
From The Economist
Published: December 27, 2012
A seasonal offering for rich-world governments to give their people—and everybody else.
Dec 22nd 2012 | from the print edition
THE holiday season is a time for expansive thoughts, and not just about waistlines. It allows people time to step back from the daily grind and think about how they could do things differently. Has lack of imagination blinded them to simple solutions? With a little effort, could they make 2013 a lot better?
For the rich world's governments, the answer is yes. We offer three ways to improve confidence and increase growth in what otherwise looks like being a pretty bleak year. Regular readers will not be astonished to hear that all three involve trade liberalisation. This is, indeed, a theme we have returned to with some frequency since this newspaper was set up in 1843 to oppose Britain's protectionist Corn Laws. But the gains to be had from sluggish rich countries opening their borders to each other's goods and services look enticing. The world is less integrated than most people realise (see article). And trade also offers a chance for liberal democracies to re-establish their credentials as the world's guides towards prosperity.
On the first day of Christmas my true love sent to me…
According to the IMF, in 2013 America's economy may grow by around 2%, Japan's and Britain's by 1% or so, and the euro zone's will be lucky to grow at all. Policymakers in each of these economies could do plenty of things to improve this dour prognosis, but most involve unappealing choices. A further monetary boost may help add zip to the recovery, but risks producing asset bubbles. More fiscal expansion could help growth but could weigh governments down with extra debt.
Freer trade, by contrast, does not involve spending any money. It demands nothing of participating governments other than a bit of leg-work and a lot of political courage. And even if some lobbies, such as farmers, will fight hard, the benefits for the overall economy of cutting barriers—the tariffs, subsidies and red tape that gum up international markets—are large. Workers' wages will go further as the cost of imported goods and services falls, exporters' markets will expand and productivity will improve as the helpful consequences of freer trade filter through the whole economy.
The three big barrier-bashing opportunities are the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a free-trade agreement that straddles the Pacific; an Atlantic-spanning free-trade deal between America and the European Union; and a true single market in services within Europe. Each of these initiatives has recently moved from the politically fanciful to the just-about plausible, with serious progress possible over the next year or two. Each in isolation would improve confidence and increase prosperity. Together, they would transform the rich world's prospects.
In an ideal world a big trade deal would be global, since dismantling barriers for all is far better than lowering them on a bilateral or regional basis (see article). But in the real world, the last set of global trade talks, the Uruguay round, was concluded back in 1994, and its successor, the Doha round, is moribund. Rather than flog a dead horse in Geneva, it is time to make progress in places where trade negotiators have momentum and politicians have interest. And that is across the Pacific and the Atlantic.
The TPP is already well under way. Eleven Pacific countries are taking part in the negotiations, including Mexico, Canada, Australia and New Zealand as well as America. South Korea might join them next year. So, too, could Japan if Shinzo Abe, the new prime minister, is serious about boosting his country's economic potential. With Japan and South Korea, the TPP countries would account for some 30% of global trade in goods and services. And the TPP has aspirations to do much more than cut tariffs: the goal is to hash out a far bigger joint rule-book, from regulation to competition policy. One study reckons a deal could raise the region's GDP by more than 1%.
The transatlantic trade agreement is still just an idea, albeit one that is being pushed hard by European politicians, and which has been cautiously embraced by Hillary Clinton, America's secretary of state. Here, too, there is plenty of potential: to streamline supply chains and raise productivity by getting rid of tariffs and to ease the burden on business by harmonising regulatory standards, so that a car or drug deemed safe in Europe need not be tested again in America. One analysis suggests that just getting rid of tariffs could raise Europe's GDP by around 0.4% and America's by a percentage point.
The really big gains will be reaped if these deals spur broader global liberalisation, particularly with the fast-growing big emerging economies. That cannot be taken for granted: the TPP and an EU-US deal could split the world into competing regional blocks from which China, especially, would be excluded. But that can be avoided by making sure that both deals are easily knitted together and easily opened to others. Both should be based on a similar template, should avoid unnecessarily restrictive prescriptions—whether on capital controls or intellectual property—and should create a set of rules that China or India can plausibly embrace.
…a boost for the rich world's GDP
As for domestic markets, there is no shortage of American industries where Barack Obama could start to remove needless red tape. But the opportunity is greatest in Europe. The single market still largely excludes services, which make up more than 70% of the region's GDP. Customs formalities, for instance, add inordinate bureaucracy and costs to the 40% of goods that are shipped within the EU by sea. Rail companies in one EU country cannot operate domestic services in another. The online market is another bugbear: it is often easier for Europeans to buy things online from America than from their neighbours. Depending on how many barriers are dismantled, the EU's GDP could be raised by 2.5% or more. All the politicians know this; most (outside France) pay lip service to the idea of expanding the single market. Now is the time to act.
By championing freer trade and open markets, the West taught the rest of the world how to grow. Nowadays, globalisation is associated with the surging middle classes of the emerging world, and some illiberal dictatorships. Let 2013 be the year when the West claims back its creed—and its oomph.
2013年，富有世界該如何提振成長？
2012-12-27 Web only 作者：經濟學人
國際貨幣基金指出，2013年，美國經濟可能僅成長2%，日本和英國約為1%，歐元區能有成長已屬萬幸。經濟學人為富有世界國家提供了三種提振信心和成長的方法，而且三種方法都與貿易自由化有關。
富有世界國家政府有許多提升成長的方法，但多數方式都會帶來不良後果；刺激方案可以帶動復甦，但可能會引發資產泡沫，進一步提加財政支出有助成長，但可能會為政府帶來更多債務。
相反地，貿易自由化並不需要花錢，只要政府擁有足夠的勇氣、又肯多花點心思即可。部分團體可能會強烈反對，但減低貿易壁壘的總體利益非常大；進口商品和服務的成本下滑，員工薪資亦會隨之上升，出口產業的市場擴大，自由貿易的篩選作用也會提升生產力。
打破貿易壁壘的三大機會，即為泛太平洋夥伴關係（TPP）、美國與歐盟間的跨大西洋自由貿易協定，以及真正的歐洲單一服務市場。研究顯示，TPP可以讓太平洋地區的GDP成長提高1%以上；根據分析，單是去除美國與歐盟間的關稅，就能讓歐洲的GDP增加約0.4%，美國則可增加1%。
歐洲單一市場仍舊將大部分的服務產業排除在外，例如對歐洲人來說，從美國線上購物會比從鄰國線上購物還方便；若能去除這方面的壁壘，歐盟的GDP可望增加2.5%以上。今日，全球化似乎只會讓人聯想到新興世界的中產階級興起，以及一些不自由的獨裁國家。希望2013年，西方可以重新揮起自由貿易和開放市場的大旗。（黃維德譯）
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