Cliff talks
By The Economist
From The Economist
Published: December 20, 2012
Dec 19th 2012, 0:28 by The Economist | WASHINGTON, DC
THE housing market has turned, Europe's crisis is apparently in remission and the Federal Reserve has pressed its monetary accelerator to the floor. Yet as 2012 draws to a close, America's economy is still growing at an annualised rate of only around 1%. That figure has been depressed by fears of the self-inflicted fiscal cliff: a package of tax increases and spending cuts, worth 5% of GDP in a full year, that is set to kick in on January 2nd.
That constraint may also be finally lifting. After six weeks of shadow-boxing, Barack Obama and John Boehner, the Republican speaker of the House of Representatives, are moving towards a long-term deficit deal to avoid the cliff. In the past week Mr Boehner has relaxed his opposition to higher tax rates and has said they could rise, though only for those earning more than $1m a year. Mr Obama, who had insisted that rates should rise for anyone making more than $250,000, has now made that $400,000. Mr Boehner has also increased the tax revenue he is prepared to see gathered to $1 trillion over ten years, while Mr Obama has lowered the amount he is demanding, to $1.2 trillion.
Mr Boehner is also willing to raise the debt ceiling far enough to avoid the risk that the threat of default is used in fiscal negotiations in 2013. Mr Obama, who had previously said Social Security (pensions) were not on the table, has agreed to index benefits to a less generous measure of inflation.
Big gaps remain: the Republicans want bigger cuts to entitlements, in particular Medicare benefits (health care for the elderly). Nor is it clear that any deal the two men may strike can pass Congress. Some Republicans are pressing to pass only the tax deal Mr Obama wants, keeping rates steady on the middle class while letting them rise on the wealthy. When the Treasury bumps up against the debt ceiling in February or March, Republicans could then insist on steep cuts to entitlements as the price of raising it.
Indeed, Mr Boehner is preparing a back-up plan: he would pass a bill raising taxes on millionaires only. Any deal that dealt only with taxes would still leave fiscal tightening of nearly 3% of GDP over a full year, and a cloud of uncertainty.
Although significant numbers of Republicans and Democrats will probably vote against any final deal, it is looking increasingly likely to pass. But it will be far from perfect. Though Mr Obama is holding out for a bit more stimulus, the planned expiry of the payroll tax cut and the implementation of smaller austerity measures will squeeze the economy early in 2013. And in the long run, the deal won't go far enough. The two sides seem to be converging on a deal that reduces deficits by $2.5 trillion over the next ten years from what they would otherwise be. That will not be enough to stabilise the debt level, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a watchdog group.
Moreover, any deal Mr Obama and Mr Boehner strike in coming days will almost certainly leave the details of tax and entitlement reform to 2013. By then, says Tom Gallagher, a policy analyst for the Scowcroft Group, the bipartisanship that made the initial deal possible may have petered out. The fiscal cliff will be gone; the fiscal uncertainty will continue.
©The Economist Newspaper Limited 2012
成長率僅1%！美國望避開財政懸崖
2012-12-20 Web only 作者：經濟學人
房市轉佳，歐洲危機消退，聯準會也將利率壓至最低，但在2012年即將結束之際，美國經濟的年化成長率仍舊只有1%左右。此外，美國還得面臨財政懸崖，也就是即將在1月2日啟動的增稅和支出裁減，其金額約為全年GDP的5%。
這個問題或許有機會解決。歐巴馬和共和黨眾議院議長博納歷經6周的協商之後，已經開始朝著長期減赤方案前行。博納不再反對增稅，但認為增稅範圍僅限於年收入超過100萬美元的人；歐巴馬也有所讓步，將增稅範圍從年收入25萬美元提高至40萬美元。
此外，博納也願意提高債務上限，以避開2013年的違約危機。歐巴馬原先表示退休金機制不在討論範圍之內，現在也同意改以比較不慷慨的通膨衡量方式，來計算福利的升幅。
不過，共和黨希望能更大幅地削減津貼，特別是老人醫療津貼。另一方面，就算歐巴馬和博納達成協議，此協議也不一定能通過國會。
目前看來，協議通過國會的機會越來越高，但此協議也不夠完美。歐巴馬多留了一些刺激方案，但小型精簡措施和即將到期的薪資稅務優惠，都會擠壓美國經濟。而長期來看，此協議可能會讓美國在未來十年內減少2.5兆美元赤字，但這樣的幅度還是無法穩定債務水準。
此外，歐巴馬和博納的協議，應該會將稅制和津貼改革的細節留待明年再議，而到了那時，目前的兩黨合作氣氛可能已然消退。財政懸崖消失了，但財政不確定性仍舊存在。（黃維德譯）
留言列表
高普考補充資料 (3)
