Microsoft and the launch of Windows 8
By The Economist
From The Economist
Published: November 13, 2012
Microsoft makes its pitch for the mobile age.
Oct 27th 2012 | from the print edition
“IT TRULY is a new era at Microsoft,” gushed Steve Ballmer, the giant software company’s boss, in a letter to shareholders this month. For once, such grandiloquence seems justified. On October 26th Windows 8, the newest version of Microsoft’s operating system for personal computers, is due to be released. It looks very different from past editions; it is designed for touchscreens on both PCs and tablets; and it can run on processors designed by ARM, a British company whose allies dominate mobile devices, as well as chips made by Intel, Microsoft’s long-term partner. Also on sale will be the Surface, a tablet-cum-PC bearing Microsoft’s own brand. A version of Windows 8 for smartphones is due on October 29th.
Whether the new era will be a successful one is an open question. It got off to a stumbling start when the European Commission warned Microsoft not to repeat the sin of steering users away from rivals to its Explorer browser. (The company insisted all would be well before the launch.)
What is not in doubt is how much is at stake for Microsoft. To see that, look at the chart. In its past financial year its Windows division accounted for about a quarter of its revenue of $73.7 billion; three-quarters of that came from sales of Windows to PC-makers for installation on new desk- and laptops. Windows is the dominant system on such devices, with more than 90% of the market despite the growing popularity of Apple’s Macs. But that market has slowed. In the year to the third quarter, shipments of PCs fell by 8.6%, according to IDC, a research firm. However, the drop largely reflected a clear-out of stocks by PC-sellers before Windows 8’s arrival as well as the ropiness of the world economy.
People are doing more and more computing on the go, using tablets and smartphones. Apple rules the tablet market, although devices powered by Google’s Android operating system have been taking a bigger share. On October 23rd Apple unveiled the fourth incarnation of the iPad as well as a smaller version with a screen less than eight inches (20cm) across; Google and Amazon had already launched much cheaper seven-inch tablets. In smartphones, Android devices account for most of the volume; Apple’s iPhone scoops most of the profit. Windows has a tiny share of smartphones; in tablets it is invisible. If you lump these in with PCs, says Frank Gillett of Forrester, another research company, Microsoft’s share of personal-computing devices drops to only 30%.
Microsoft’s plan has several parts, starting with the transformation of Windows into a system for touchscreens. “Tiles” replace the icons that have cluttered screens since Windows 95 appeared 17 years ago. Tiles can represent pretty much anything you like, from applications to photos of loved ones. They are also “live”, showing new information as it comes in. Xbox, Microsoft’s games and home-entertainment hub, and existing Windows phones already have this look.
Complementarity between devices goes beyond appearances. Using Microsoft’s cloud services, owners of Windows 8 devices will be able to start doing something on one machine (working in the office, say) and continue on another (finishing a document on the road). They will also be able to play Xbox’s music, video and games. In effect, says José Piñero of Microsoft’s entertainment and devices division, this stretches Xbox’s reach from the 67m consoles sold so far to “hundreds of millions” of devices. Through an app called SmartGlass, tablets and phones can become adjuncts to Xboxes in the home, showing information about a film playing on the screen in the living room.
This distinguishes Microsoft from Apple. Apple’s desk- and laptops, on the one hand, and its iPhones and iPads on the other, have different operating systems and appearances. Microsoft is also more generous than Apple to its army of developers, on whom it must rely to fill the Windows Store, the online shop for Windows 8 apps. Apple (like Google) snaffles 30% of all revenue from its store. Microsoft will take 30% only of the first $25,000 and 20% on the rest. Developers may also take payment outside the shop, cutting Microsoft out.
At the same time, Microsoft is taking a leaf out of Apple’s book, by making and selling its own devices. Hitherto, it has supplied the operating system; others have made the PCs. Although lots of devices will be on offer, the Surface, says Tami Reller, the chief financial officer of the Windows division, is “the perfect stage for Windows 8”. The most basic version costs $499, the same as the cheapest full-sized new iPad; another $100 buys a cover containing a keyboard. At least at first, the Surface will be sold only online or through Microsoft’s own bricks-and-mortar shops.
Mark Moerdler of Sanford C. Bernstein, a research firm, says that although Windows 8 may sell on PCs it is “a tablet operating system first and foremost”. Unlike Apple’s and Google’s systems, he says, it has been designed to allow people to create content as well as to consume it. Being able to use Microsoft’s popular Office suite of Word (document), Excel (spreadsheet) and PowerPoint (slide) software on a tablet designed for the purpose should give Windows 8 an edge over its competitors. A version will be installed on devices that run Windows RT, the cheaper, less powerful, ARM-based flavour of Windows 8, such as the first Surfaces. Microsoft does not make Office for the iPad.
Microsoft says advance sales have been brisk: at $800m by the end of September, they were 40% higher than for Windows 7 before its launch in 2009. Even so, there are obstacles. One, suggested by some previews, is that the new look and feel will take getting used to—though Ms Reller says that in trials 84% of people got to grips with it within a day. Another is that Windows 7 has been popular, so people may be wary of upgrading. And touchscreen adds about $100 to the cost of a PC, reckons Kirk Yang, who covers technology hardware for Barclays in Hong Kong. All this may make consumers hesitate before they buy.
Companies are likely to be slower on the uptake than consumers. Many have not long switched to Windows 7 (or are still using Windows XP, released 11 years ago). They will be in no hurry to invest in touchscreen PCs or to retrain staff to use Windows 8. They may, however, be happy to see their staff using tablets with Office.
Mr Gillett at Forrester thinks that for all these reasons sales may not really get going until 2014. But he forecasts that by 2016 Microsoft will have over a quarter of the tablet market and a fair if smaller share of smartphone operating systems too. The personal-computing market is shifting fast, from desk-bound to mobile and from mouse-and-keyboard to touch. Microsoft had little choice but to go mobile. Its chances of success boil down to how much people care about having more or less the same operating system, tools and content in the office, on the road and on the sofa, as well as on the quality of what Microsoft has to offer. It is touch, and go.
from the print edition | Business
微軟 丟「磚塊」打蘋果
2012-10-31 天下雜誌 509期 作者：經濟學人
微軟邁向行動時代，正式向蘋果、Google宣戰。新武器就是十月底上市的Windows 8。
「微軟的新時代降臨了。」這個月，微軟CEO包默爾在寫給股東的信中宣示。這一次，壯志豪語似乎是有道理的。十月二十六日，新的作業系統Windows 8正式上市。這款為了觸控螢幕所設計的作業系統，與過去的版本很不一樣。
轉進觸控，微軟做了幾項改變。首先，「方磚」取代了打從十七年前Windows 95就有的凌亂桌面。整齊的磚塊可以代表任何你想要的東西，從應用程式到家人的照片。
Win 8也利用微軟的雲端系統，將各種電子設備串連起來。不論你在辦公室，或是回家的路上，只要握有搭載Win 8作業系統的裝置，就可在不同的地方完成同一份文件。
此外，還能夠透過免費的app SmartGlass，將微軟的平板和手機與Xbox連接在一塊，利用不同裝置的串連，遙控或同步欣賞在家中播放的影片。
這項特色區別了微軟與蘋果。蘋果的桌上型電腦、筆記型電腦，和iPhone、iPad各有不同的作業系統與介面外觀。
ＰＣ、行動裝置 雲端串連
對於app開發商，微軟也比蘋果大方許多。蘋果和Google一樣，抽取app商店所有營收的三成為利潤。微軟則僅在一開始營收的兩萬五千美元，收取三成，之後只收兩成。
同時，微軟也推出自己的平板電腦Surface。但與蘋果和Google行動裝置作業系統不同，Surface上可以使用Word、Excel、和Powerpoint等微軟的人氣軟體。人們可以行動編輯新的檔案內容，而不只是接收閱讀檔案而已，這給予微軟超越對手的優勢。
截至九月底，Win 8的預購已達到八億美元，比○九年推出Win 7還多了四成，即使如此，前景仍然充滿阻礙。
因為使用者得重新適應新的外觀和使用感。另外大眾可能會審慎考慮是否該從Win 7升級到Win 8。「觸控面板成本不低，價格增加將近一百美元，」巴克萊證券下游亞太區硬體分析師楊應超說，「這些都會讓消費者猶豫再三。」
公司行號轉換到Win 8的速度可能比一般消費者更慢，很多才剛換成Win 7，甚至還在使用十一年前的舊產品：Windows XP。他們還不急於投資有觸控面板的電腦，或是重新訓練員工使用Win 8。
市調機構Forrester認為，基於以上種種原因，在二○一四年前，Win 8的整體銷售潛力還無法充分發揮。但到二○一六年，微軟的平板市佔率預計將超過四分之一，而在智慧型手機的作業系統方面，也會有類似的佔比。 （陳竫詒譯）
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