Xi Jinping
By The Economist
From The Economist
Published: November 13, 2012
Xi Jinping will soon be named as China’s next president. He must be ready to break with the past.
Oct 27th 2012 | from the print edition
JUST after the 18th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, which starts in Beijing on November 8th, a short line of dark-suited men, and perhaps one woman, will step onto a red carpet in a room in the Great Hall of the People and meet the world’s press. At their head will be Xi Jinping, the newly anointed party chief, who in March will also take over as president of China. Behind him will file the new members of the Politburo Standing Committee, China’s supreme body. The smiles will be wooden, the backs ramrod straight. Yet the stage-management could hardly be more different from the tempestuous uncertainties of actually governing.
As ruler of the world’s new economic powerhouse, Mr Xi will follow his recent predecessors in trying to combine economic growth with political stability. Yet this task is proving increasingly difficult. A slowing economy, corruption and myriad social problems are causing growing frustration among China’s people and worry among its officials.
In coping with these tensions, Mr Xi can continue to clamp down on discontent, or he can start to loosen the party’s control. China’s future will be determined by the answer to this question: does Mr Xi have the courage and vision to see that assuring his country’s prosperity and stability in the future requires him to break with the past?
Who’s Xi?
To the rich world, labouring under debt and political dysfunction, Chinese self-doubt might seem incongruous. Deng Xiaoping’s relaunch of economic reforms in 1992 has resulted in two decades of extraordinary growth. In the past ten years under the current leader, Hu Jintao, the economy has quadrupled in size in dollar terms. A new (though rudimentary) social safety net provides 95% of all Chinese with some kind of health coverage, up from just 15% in 2000. Across the world, China is seen as second in status and influence only to America.
Until recently, the Chinese were getting richer so fast that most of them had better things to worry about than how they were governed. But today China faces a set of threats that an official journal describes as “interlocked like dog’s teeth” (see article). The poor chafe at inequality, corruption, environmental ruin and land-grabs by officials. The middle class fret about contaminated food and many protect their savings by sending money abroad and signing up for foreign passports (see article). The rich and powerful fight over the economy’s vast wealth. Scholars at a recent government conference summed it up well: China is “unstable at the grass roots, dejected at the middle strata and out of control at the top”.
Once, the party could bottle up dissent. But ordinary people today protest in public. They write books on previously taboo subjects (see article) and comment on everything in real time through China’s vibrant new social media. Complaints that would once have remained local are now debated nationwide. If China’s leaders mishandle the discontent, one senior economist warned in a secret report, it could cause “a chain reaction that results in social turmoil or violent revolution”.
But, you don’t need to think that China is on the brink of revolution to believe that it must use the next decade to change. The departing prime minister, Wen Jiabao, has more than once called China’s development “unbalanced, unco-ordinated and unsustainable”. Last week Qiushi , the party’s main theoretical journal, called on the government to “press ahead with restructuring of the political system”.
Mr Xi portrays himself as a man of the people and the party still says it represents the masses, but it is not the meritocracy that some Western observers claim (see article). Those without connections, are often stuck at the bottom of the pile. Having long since lost ideological legitimacy, and with slower growth sapping its economic legitimacy, the party needs a new claim on the loyalty of China’s citizens.
Take a deep breath
Mr Xi could start by giving a little more power to China’s people. Rural land, now collectively owned, should be privatised and given to the peasants; the judicial system should offer people an answer to their grievances; the household-registration, or hukou, system should be phased out to allow families of rural migrants access to properly funded health care and education in cities. At the same time, he should start to loosen the party’s grip. China’s cosseted state-owned banks should be exposed to the rigours of competition; financial markets should respond to economic signals, not official controls; a free press would be a vital ally in the battle against corruption.
Such a path would be too much for those on the Chinese “left”, who look scornfully at the West and insist on the Communist Party’s claim—its duty, even—to keep the monopoly of power. Even many on the liberal “right”, who call for change, would contemplate nothing more radical than Singapore-style one-party dominance. But Mr Xi should go much further. To restore his citizens’ faith in government, he also needs to venture deep into political reform.
That might sound implausible, but in the 1980s no less a man than Deng spoke of China having a directly elected central leadership after 2050—and he cannot have imagined the transformation that his country would go on to enjoy. Zhu Rongji, Mr Wen’s predecessor, said that competitive elections should be extended to higher levels, “the sooner the better”. Although the party has since made political change harder by restricting the growth of civil society, those who think it is impossible could look to Taiwan, which went through something similar, albeit under the anti-Communist Kuomintang.
Ultimately, this newspaper hopes, political reform would make the party answerable to the courts and, as the purest expression of this, free political prisoners. It would scrap party-membership requirements for official positions and abolish party committees in ministries. It would curb the power of the propaganda department to impose censorship and scrap the central military commission, which commits the People’s Liberation Army to defend the party, not just the country.
No doubt Mr Xi would balk at that. Even so, a great man would be bold. Independent candidates should be encouraged to stand for people’s congresses, the local parliaments that operate at all levels of government, and they should have the freedom to let voters know what they think. A timetable should also be set for directly electing government leaders, starting with townships in the countryside and districts in the cities, perhaps allowing five years for those experiments to settle in, before taking direct elections up to the county level in rural areas, then prefectures and later provinces, leading all the way to competitive elections for national leaders.
The Chinese Communist Party has a powerful story to tell. Despite its many faults, it has created wealth and hope that an older generation would have found unimaginable. Bold reform would create a surge of popular goodwill towards the party from ordinary Chinese people.
Mr Xi comes at a crucial moment for China, when hardliners still deny the need for political change and insist that the state can put down dissent with force. For everyone else, too, Mr Xi’s choice will weigh heavily. The world has much more to fear from a weak, unstable China than from a strong one.
from the print edition | Leaders
習近平必須學會「放手」
2012-10-31 天下雜誌 509期 作者：經濟學人
習近平上台後的挑戰將比他的前任更多。中國未來的繁榮穩定，將取決於習近平是否有足夠的勇氣和視野，與過去做出切割。
十一月八日，中共十八大召開之後，習近平將正式接任中共中央總書記，並在明年三月接任中國國家主席一職。
身為世界新興經濟強權的統治者，習近平將會像他的前任一樣，盡力兼顧經濟成長和政治穩定。
但經濟放緩、貪污與各種社會、環境問題，不但讓中國人民愈來愈無法忍受，也加深了執政者的憂慮。
面對這些難題，習近平可選擇繼續高壓維穩，也可選擇開始放鬆共產黨的控制。中國未來的繁榮與穩定，將取決於習近平是否有勇氣與願景，和過去劃清界線。
中共理論刊物《求是》雜誌在最近一期文章中，呼籲政府必須「奮力推進政改」。
因為中共不但已失去了意識形態的合法性，中國經濟成長放緩，也讓他們逐漸失去經濟的正當性。中共需要一套新主張，才能維持人民對共產黨的忠誠。
給予人民更多權力，可以是一個起點。農村土地應該私有化，司法體系應該解決民眾的不滿，戶口制度應該取消，讓農民工家庭享受城市的教育與醫療資源。
同時，被寵壞的國有銀行要更市場化，媒體則可以成為打擊貪污的最佳盟友。
為了恢復中國人民對政府的信心，習近平必須進行政治改革。
這個主張聽起來可能不切實際，但就連鄧小平也曾經在一九八○年代表達過，中國可在二○五○年後，出現民選中央領導。前總理朱鎔基，也曾主張競爭性選舉應該擴大到更高層，而且「愈快愈好」。
那些不相信會發生改變的人，應該看看走過同樣道路的台灣。
《經濟學人》主張，中國政改，最終應包括法院可以制衡共產黨、釋放政治犯。取消擔任政府職務必須是共產黨員的規定，撤除政府單位中的黨組織，限制共黨宣傳部門審查言論的權力。中央軍委會也應裁撤，讓人民解放軍國家化。
另外，應該鼓勵獨立候選人，參選各階層人民代表大會。同時，訂出直選政府領導人的時間表。
儘管中國共產黨犯過許多錯誤，它仍有許多故事可以傳頌。中共創造了上一代中國人所無法想像的財富與希望，而大膽的改革，會讓中國百姓對共產黨更有好感。
習近平在中國最關鍵的時刻登場，他的選擇，將會舉足輕重。畢竟一個衰弱、不穩定的中國，會比一個強大的中國，更讓世界憂心。（辜樹仁譯）
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