Boom and gloom
By The Economist
From The Economist
Published: May 22, 2013
May 18th 2013 |From the print edition
Our latest round-up of house prices reveals some sharp contrasts.
STOCKMARKETS around the world have been stimulated by ultra-loose monetary policy. The response of property markets—the biggest asset class of all—has varied. Whereas the housing boom before the financial crisis was remarkable for its global reach, the recovery after the bust is patchy. Among the 18 countries shown in the table, prices have risen over the past year in 12. The biggest increase has been in Hong Kong, where house prices are up by 24.5%. The biggest faller is Spain, where prices are down by 7.7%.
Property markets are generally strong in the developing world. Prices have forged ahead by 11.1% in South Africa. They have also been buoyant in two big emerging economies included in our compilation for the first time: Brazil (up by 12.8%) and India (10.7%). China's house prices have increased modestly, by 3.3%.
Housing markets are notoriously prone to boom and bust. To judge whether prices are at sustainable levels we use two yardsticks. One is the ratio of prices to disposable income per person, a measure of affordability. The other is the price-to-rent ratio, which is analogous to the price-to-earnings ratio used for equities, with rents going to landlords (or saved by homeowners) equivalent to corporate profits. If these gauges are higher than their historical averages, property is overvalued; if they are lower, it is undervalued.
On this basis Canada's market is especially vulnerable. A large bubble now looks set to burst. Home sales in March were 15% down on a year earlier. Buyers are in short supply. A recent poll showed that only 15% of Canadians are likely to buy a home in the next two years, down from 27% last year—the steepest decline in the 20-year history of the survey. After a big boom, the housing bust will be a wrenching affair.
By contrast, the recovery in the United States, where house prices are up by 9.3%, is based on solid foundations. Previous falls in prices have made homes cheap by historical standards. The recovery has been driven by investors rather than owner-occupiers, but interest on the part of homeowners is increasing. Housing starts are rising sharply.
In the crisis-stricken euro area the Spanish freefall will continue, judging by still- elevated valuations. Housing markets are depressed throughout southern Europe, notably in Italy. But the agony is no longer confined to the periphery of the euro zone. Home prices are falling fast in the Netherlands and they are also sagging in France. High valuations in both countries point to more misery ahead.
The big exception in the euro zone remains Germany, which avoided the great housing boom before the financial crisis. Property prices continue to rise, though at a stately pace. They remain undervalued judged by both rents and income, which provides scope for more gains.
British house prices have stagnated over the past year. Though still high, they seem likely to rise further thanks to government support. In a joint operation between the Bank of England and the Treasury, mortgage lenders can already get cheap funding, letting them offer more housing loans. Buyers of new homes who cannot muster a big enough deposit are now also getting help from a shared-equity scheme. And the government will provide partial guarantees on £130 billion ($200 billion) of low-deposit and therefore riskier mortgage loans made in the three years starting next January.
The contrasting performance of property markets both reflects and reinforces the broader trend towards a "three-speed" global economy. Markets are generally strong in the fast-growing emerging economies. America's housing-market upturn will help sustain its wider recovery. The blight afflicting many European property markets is one more reason why the euro area is bringing up the rear.
房市泡沫即將破裂？全球各地房市表現不一
2013-05-22 Web only 作者：經濟學人
超寬鬆貨幣政策帶動了全球股市，但不動產市場的反應則各地不一。總體觀之，新興世界的不動產市場大多相當強勁，南非不動產價格成長了11.1%，巴西成長12.8%，印度則為10.7%；中國房價成長則相當緩和，為3.3%。
房屋市場的漲跌走向通常極為劇烈，經濟學人則以兩種衡量方式，判斷房價是否處於永續水準。其一為房價與人均可支配所得之比例，其二則為房價與租金之比例；高於歷史平均代表不動產價值高估，反之則為低估。
以此觀之，加拿大房市格外脆弱，巨大的泡沫似乎即將破裂；三月房屋銷售較去年同期下滑15%，最近的民調亦顯示，只有15%的加拿大人可能會在接下來兩年內買房子，較去年的27%嚴重減少。相反地，美國房價上升9.3%，且其復甦擁有穩定的基礎。先前價格下跌讓房屋變便宜，目前的復甦雖然是由投資客帶動，但住房買家的興趣也在上升。
而在遭受危機重擊的歐元區，兩項指標顯示西班牙房價仍高估，代表西班牙房價應該會持續大跌。南歐房市表現普遍不佳，但歐元區其他國家也面臨著同樣的問題；荷蘭房價快速下跌，法國亦是如此。
德國仍舊是歐元區的重大例外，不動產持續緩步上升，以租金和收入來看，德國房價仍舊低估，還有成長空間。過去一年，英國房價呈現停滯，房價仍高，但在政府的支持措施之下，應該有機會繼續上升。
不動產市場表現不一，既反映也強化了全球經濟的「三速」趨勢。在成長快速的新興經濟體，各個市場的表現通常也相當強勢；美國房市上揚將有助維持經濟復甦；而衰弱的各個歐洲不動產市場，則再次突顯了為何歐元區會在經濟成長方面殿後。（黃維德譯）
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