Japan and China
By The Economist
From The Economist
Published: October 24, 2012
Businesses struggle to contain fallout from the diplomatic crisis.
Oct 20th 2012 | TOKYO | from the print edition
ANTI-JAPAN riots, the torching of car showrooms, bloody attacks on hapless drivers of Japanese cars—all these have eased in China since the row over disputed islands reached its peak last month. But in Japan, the sense of injury runs deep. Japan’s mass-selling weeklies, a barometer of public opinion, have spent weeks fantasising about such once-unthinkable scenarios as a mass pull-out of Japanese companies. “It will be China that collapses,” crows one, the Shukan Bunshun.
Not so. According to Keidanren, Japan’s business lobby, there are almost 30,000 Japanese firms in China, the result of 40 years of mostly thriving trade. Japan has invested $85 billion in China in the past 15 years, including over $6 billion last year alone. With Japan’s economy stagnant, its population shrinking, and energy costs and the currency rising, its firms in China have little choice but to lower their heads and hope that the row blows over. The toll is heavy, nonetheless. Car exports to China, for instance, may drop by 70% in the fourth quarter compared with the third, says J.P. Morgan, a bank. Japan’s GDP may dip as a result.
Despite the unfavourable climate, many firms are resolved to press on. Even as its sales in China plunge, and after some soul-searching about the timing of the announcement, Mitsubishi Motors said on October 12th it would launch a long-term tie-up with Guangzhou Automobile Group to make and sell sports utility vehicles. Japan’s biggest clothes retailer, Fast Retailing, says it plans to open another 1,000 Uniqlo stores in the country. Shin Tanaka of Fleishman Hillard, a public-relations firm, says retailers are more inclined to keep their plans in place than producers are. Partly that is because they cannot afford to ignore the vast and growing Chinese market. Also, they have less to lose from vandalism.
Others, meanwhile, choose to emphasise different risks in China, especially those of slowing growth. Hiroaki Nakanishi, the boss of Hitachi, Japan’s largest electronics conglomerate, had several trips to Beijing cancelled this summer because of the dispute. Hitachi’s automotive-parts firms—among 440 Japanese companies supplying carmakers in China—have been hit by the consumer boycott of Japanese cars. But that appears to have been overshadowed by the slowing economy. Before the island dispute, Hitachi’s sales of construction machinery, such as earth-movers, had fallen by almost half, year-on-year, he says.
Stunned as both Japanese producers and retailers are by the outbursts, there may be a sting in the tail for China. In contrast to 2005, the previous time anti-Japanese riots flared, China is not the only fast-growing, well-populated, low-cost market around. Back then, Japanese firms hedged their China risk with a “China-plus-one” strategy, implying that they would find an extra Asian supply hub, such as Thailand. Now, that has grown into a wider “China-plus” strategy, because their options these days have widened to include Indonesia, Myanmar, Vietnam, Cambodia, the Philippines and India.
As China’s wages rise and its economy slows, analysts say the risk that multinational supply chains may find alternative locations is something the government may want to think about the next time it lets vandals loose in the name of nationalism. Japanese businessfolk, meanwhile, might try harder to gag their clumsy nationalist politicians, who sparked the row over the islands in the first place.
from the print edition | Business
釣魚台爭議！企業掙扎於中日外交
2012-10-24 Web only 作者：經濟學人
中日的釣魚台爭議在上個月達到高峰，自那時之後，破壞汽車展示間等反日暴動已有所緩和。但在日本，許多週刊花了數周探討日本企業大舉撤出中國的後果；《週刊文春》認為，垮台的會是中國。
情況並非如此。日本企業遊說團體經團連指出，中國約有近3萬間日本企業，過去15年裡，日本在中國投資了850億美元，單是去年就超過60億美元。由於日本經濟停滯、人口縮減，能源成本和幣值又節節上升，中國的日本企業除了期待爭議平歇之外別無選擇。
縱使氣氛不佳，許多企業還是決心繼續前行。三菱汽車於10月12日表示，將與廣州汽車工業集團展開長期合作；Fast Retailing也計畫在中國再開1000間Uniqlo。
其他企業則將焦點放到不同的風險之上，其中又以成長走緩為最。中國抵制日本汽車，對於提供汽車零件的日立造成極大衝擊，但那似乎還是比不上經濟走緩的影響；在釣魚台爭議之前，日立的建築設備銷售已經下滑了近一半。
目前的情況與2005年反日示威時不同，中國已經不是唯一一個成長快速、人口眾多又成本低廉的國家。05年時，日本企業以「中國加一」的策略來避險，亦即在中國之外多找一個供應樞紐，例如泰國；現在，它們的選擇已經增加許多，印尼、緬甸、越南等國都包含在內。
隨著中國的經濟走緩、薪資上升，下次中國政府以國家主義之名放任破壞份子之時，或許得思考一下跨國供應鏈另尋他地的風險。（黃維德譯）
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