The honne and the tatemae
By The Economist
From The Economist
Published: November 13, 2013
Nov 9th 2013 |From the print edition
Big business in Japan publicly supports Abenomics while being privately wary.
JAPANESE culture places great stress on distinguishing the honne, one's genuine feelings, from the tatemae, what one must say publicly. Just before Shinzo Abe, Japan's prime minister, returned to power last year, Hiromasa Yonekura, the head of the Keidanren, the country's big-business lobby, made a grave error by revealing his honne about Abenomics, Mr Abe's bold strategy to revive the economy. He said its call for a radical loosening of monetary policy was "reckless". Mr Yonekura backtracked, but has been cold-shouldered by the government. Since then, bosses have been sticking to the tatemae, bland statements of support for Abenomics. Privately, many are less keen.
Big firms were overjoyed when Mr Abe's business-friendly Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) returned to power. In the previous three years, the more left-leaning Democratic Party of Japan had rattled them with talk of tough new labour and environmental rules. The early stages of Abenomics have benefited large enterprises. A lower yen has turbocharged exporters' profits. Its second "arrow", a {Yen}10.3 trillion ($105 billion) fiscal stimulus, has boosted construction firms and heavy industry. The third arrow, a bunch of structural reforms currently being legislated, should also help businesses grow; and a long-sought lowering of Japan's relatively high corporate tax rate is now in the works. Surveys show company bosses at their most hopeful in years.
With the comeback of the LDP, businesspeople were expecting a return to a cosy status quo in which, for most of the post-war period, the party ruled in an "iron triangle" with its backers in big business and in the bureaucracy. But bosses are beginning to realise that the next stage of Abenomics depends on concerted action by them—including things they would rather not do.
For a start, the government is pressing them to lift basic pay, to boost consumption. Workers' pay has been slipping since 1997. If that continues, as the Bank of Japan's monetary easing gradually replaces deflation with mild inflation, households' spending-power will shrink, bringing the recovery to a halt. Other than two convenience-store chains, few companies have acted. Most have gone no further than raising bonuses, an easily reversible step.
The Keidanren is now recommending that its members offer pay rises in next spring's annual talks with unions, and some say they will consider doing so. But that is just the tatemae. In private, bosses insist that temporary rises are all that can be offered, even if the government dangles tax cuts as a bribe for basic-pay increases. "We are not communists!" harrumphs an executive at one of the largest carmakers. He hopes the government is simply indulging in some tatemae of its own. After all, it is politically wise for Mr Abe to be seen bullying companies into lifting wages.
But that is not the end of Mr Abe's radical agenda for business. He has in effect appointed himself chief executive of Japan, as the Nikkei business newspaper puts it; and this is making the real bosses uneasy. Mr Abe is hectoring them to raise their game and boost their firms' performance. To that end, the third arrow of Abenomics calls for stricter corporate governance and closer oversight by the Japanese institutions that own shares. Another unwelcome demand Mr Abe is making of big firms is that they put more women into senior management and on their boards.
Japan's more regressive companies shudder at all this. According to Yoshimitsu Kobayashi, the chief executive of Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings and an adviser to Mr Abe, "around a third of presidents of large companies don't want to alter things, they simply want to serve out their turn in top management." Behind the scenes, the Keidanren is fighting tooth and nail against improvements to corporate governance. So far it has successfully resisted a proposal to require firms to have at least one independent board director. Insiders suggest that it may be only a tiny handful of influential companies that are blocking progress. But such recalcitrance matters, because it complicates the Keidanren's efforts to persuade the government to pass other reforms which its members do want, such as making it easier to fire employees.
Fortunately, the prime minister's reform drive is getting genuine support from two other business groups, Keizai Doyukai (a club for CEOs, of which Mr Kobayashi is a senior member) and the Japan Association of the New Economy, which is headed by Hiroshi Mikitani, the founder of Rakuten, a giant internet firm. The other two-thirds of company presidents, insists Mr Kobayashi, do yearn for change. This week Mr Mikitani, very much revealing his honne, lashed out at Mr Abe for foot-dragging on deregulation, after a decision to allow drugs to be sold online appeared to have been reversed.
The elephant in Japan's boardrooms, says Kazuo Hirai, the boss of Sony, is the country's ageing and shrinking population. This will discourage firms from obeying yet another of Mr Abe's demands on businesses, which is to invest more at home. With growth prospects limited by demography, many prefer to spend money overseas or not at all. Mr Abe's attempt to ease the problem by bringing more women into the workforce is a good step, says Mr Hirai, but as important is a more liberal immigration policy. That piece of honne, however, may still be too controversial.
Honest to Abe
For now, Mr Abe draws much support from the most old-fashioned of Japanese tycoons, as much because of the conservative political beliefs they share as for anything to do with business. The Keidanren continues to be a generous donor to the LDP. But a shake-up of the way in which corporate Japan fights for its interests is sorely needed. Younger, more internationally minded businesspeople should be encouraged to speak up alongside the old guard. Honest criticism from them would benefit Abenomics more than insincere praise.
日本大企業 不挺安倍經濟？
2013-11-13 Web only 作者：經濟學人
日本文化非常強調區別「本音」與「建前」，前者為個人真實的感受，後者則為一個人必須在公開場合說出的話。去年，就在安倍晉三再次掌權之前，日本經濟團體連合會（經團連）會長米倉弘昌犯下嚴重錯誤，說出了他對安倍經濟的真實感受；他認為大幅放寬貨幣政策太過魯莽。雖然稍後米倉弘昌收回了自己的話，卻仍舊遭受日本政府冷漠對待。自那時開始，企業老闆便堅守「建前」，支持安倍經濟；但在私底下，許多人並不是那麼熱衷。
先前三年，較為左傾的民主黨有意提出更嚴格的勞動和環境規範，讓大企業十分不安；因此，重商的自民黨重新掌權讓它們非常開心。安倍經濟的初期階段有利於大企業；日元走低大幅提升出口商的利潤，第二支「箭」推出財政刺激，帶動建築和重工業；第三支箭、目前正在立法階段的結構性改革，應該也有助企業成長。調查顯示，企業老闆的樂觀程度為近年來最高。
自民黨重掌政權之後，商界預期日本會回到舒適的現狀，亦即由自民黨、大企業和官僚組成的「鐵三角」掌理政治。但大企業的老闆已逐漸發現，安倍經濟的下一階段他們也得有所行動，而且還得做一些他們不願做的事。
日本政府正在向企業施壓，要求它們提高基本薪資以刺激消費。1997年開始，勞工薪資即呈現下滑，若此情況持續，加上貨幣寬鬆讓日本由通縮走向微幅通膨，家庭的購買力將會縮減，讓復甦陷入停滯。但多數企業只是提高了未來可以輕易調低的紅利。
經團連建議會員，在明年春天工會協商時調高薪資，部分會員亦表示會好好考慮。但那只是「建前」；在私底下，企業老闆強調，就算政府以減稅為誘因，他們最多也只能暫時提高薪資。
安倍的激進手段並未僅止於此。安倍還要求企業老闆提升自我和企業的表現；在這方面，安倍經濟的第三支箭要求上市企業強化公司管理和監督機制。另一個不受歡迎的要求，則是在資深管理階層和董事會加入更多女性。
日本那些較為守舊的企業十分厭惡這一切。三菱化學控股執行長、安倍的顧問小林喜光表示，約三分之一的大企業總裁不想改變，只想在最高管理層待完任期。經團連亦在檯面下強力反抗強化公司管理；內部人士表示，可能只有少數幾間影響力強大的企業在阻擋，但那也讓經團連更難遊說政府推動會員想要的改革，例如讓裁員更容易等。
所幸，安倍的改革獲得了另外兩個商業團體的真心支持；其一為經濟同友會（執行長俱樂部，小林喜光為資深會員），另一個則是由樂天（Rakuten）創立者三木谷浩史帶領的新經濟連盟。
Sony總裁平井一夫指出，日本那個沒人敢提的問題，就是人口衰減和老化。這會讓企業不願遵循安倍的另一項要求，亦即增加國內投資。成長前景受制於人口組成，許多企業寧可投資海外、或是根本不投資。平井一夫認為，安倍希望以增加女性就業緩和此問題，相當值得稱許，但放寬移民政策也同樣重要；然而，這樣的「本音」或許還是太具爭議性。
目前，安倍獲得的支持，大多來自傳統日本大亨，兩者擁有同樣的傳統政治信仰，對商業議題的看法亦相同。經團連仍舊是自民黨的重要捐獻者，但日本亟需改變企業爭取利益的方式；日本應該鼓勵更年輕、更具國際觀的商務人士發聲；誠實的批評，比虛偽的讚揚更有利於安倍經濟。（黃維德譯）
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