Summers v Yellen
By The Economist
From The Economist
Published: August 13, 2013
Aug 10th 2013 |From the print edition
What does it take to run America's central bank?
HOW to choose someone for the most powerful economic job in the world? With name-calling and innuendo, it seems. A rancorous campaign for the Federal Reserve's top job has disturbed the normal August sleepiness in Washington, DC. Janet Yellen, an esteemed economist and vice-chairman to current Fed chairman Ben Bernanke, has been dismissed as lacking "gravitas" in what could easily be mistaken for thinly veiled sexism (no woman has yet held the role). Another front-runner, the brilliant and polarising Larry Summers, is caricatured as a nightmare to work with and a handmaiden to Wall Street. However petty the race, Barack Obama's eventual decision, which will come this autumn, will prove momentous.
Much has changed since Mr Bernanke took the helm in 2006. Since late 2008 the Fed has taken unprecedented steps to battle the recession and pep up the recovery, cutting interest rates to near zero and printing trillions of dollars to buy up government and mortgage-backed bonds ("quantitative easing", or QE). It has also tweaked its obscure policy statements to link rate rises to concrete labour-market progress. His successor must decide if the treatment still suits the ailment—and in time wean the economy from the medicine.
Although they boast similar credentials the two leading candidates have very different reputations. Mr Summers has been a dominant figure in Democratic policy circles for two decades, serving as Bill Clinton's treasury secretary and chair of Mr Obama's National Economic Council. For his management of the financial crises of the 1990s Time named him a member of "the committee to save the world". Yet his roles have often been marked by blunders. A stint as president of Harvard University ended badly, after missteps prompted a faculty vote of no confidence.
Janet Yellen's service on Mr Clinton's Council of Economic Advisers in the late 1990s was comparatively quiet. She is little known outside the world of central banking. From 2004 to 2011 Ms Yellen was president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco; since 2010 she has worked as the Fed's vice-chairman, helping craft the central bank's response to a weak recovery.
Dark horses cannot be ruled out, like Donald Kohn, a retired Fed veteran and Ms Yellen's predecessor as vice-chairman, or Timothy Geithner, Mr Obama's first treasury secretary. Still other names may be on the list. Yet the campaign for the Fed job has become an intense and occasionally uncivil battle between supporters of Mr Summers and Ms Yellen.
The low tone of the debate is disappointing. Not enough attention is being paid to the candidates' economic views. In a 2003 study of past Fed chairmen Christina Romer and David Romer of the University of California, Berkeley, reckon that a candidate who subscribes to a "sound" framework of basic monetary principles is most likely to do well. They find that appointees' past statements are a valuable guide to their later actions.
That presents a problem. Ms Yellen's views are an open book. She has written and spoken extensively on monetary policy and the thinking behind the Fed's current strategy. And she has argued that more could be done to help the jobless given the Fed's dual mandate: price stability and maximum employment.
Mr Summers's writing suggests his views are conventionally Keynesian. He reckons the government can help most by boosting demand. But he has sat out the day's heated monetary debates—save for a mildly sceptical take on QE in remarks at an April conference— and focused instead on fiscal issues. His most recent research argues that fiscal spending could be self-financing if it shortens unemployment spells. Although he is surely more open on monetary policy with Mr Obama, the rest of the world is left guessing his views.
Personality and management style will also be factors. In 2012 Laurence Ball, an economist at Johns Hopkins University, speculated that Mr Bernanke's retiring temperament may make him too eager for consensus. A more assertive and self-confident chairman, in the mould of Mr Summers, could be more comfortable pushing unpopular policies such as a temporary increase in inflation (which Mr Bernanke recommended for a struggling Japan in the 1990s, but has rejected as treatment for America's economy). Yet policymaking by consensus may also enhance the Fed's credibility. The central bank has promised to keep interest rates low beyond the end of Mr Bernanke's term, for example. Were the current chairman a more bull-headed figure, markets might assume that policy would change with personnel.
A chairman's greatest challenge is to anticipate—and react to—surprises. Mr Summers's backers argue that no one can match his nimble mind. Ms Yellen's partisans contrast Mr Summers's past enthusiasm for financial engineering with her prescient forecasting record. She was the most accurate of Fed officials between 2009 and 2012, according to a recent survey.
Some wonder whether the net for candidates should have been cast wider. Under Mr Bernanke the Fed has performed well relative to peers but has repeatedly missed its own inflation and unemployment targets. A true outsider is unlikely to be appointed but could be just the thing
誰是下一任美國聯準會主席？
2013-08-13 Web only 作者：經濟學人
如何為全世界最有權力的經濟職位挑選人才？目前看來，靠的是辱罵和諷刺。美國聯準會主席職位之爭，攪亂了華府的平靜。聯準會副主席耶倫（Janet Yellen）被嗆說不夠「格」，這樣的批評很容易被誤認為性別歧見（目前還沒有女性擔任過此職務）；另一位跑在前排的人選桑默斯（Larry Summer）則是忍受嘲諷，說他難以共事，而且是華爾街的女佣。
自從柏南克於2006年就任之後，有許多改變。2008年末開始，聯準會採行前所未見的措施，以對抗衰退並推升復甦，同時修改模糊的政策聲明，將升息與勞動市場連結在一起。他的繼任者必須決定這些措施是否仍舊適用，以及何時該開始停止這些措施。
兩名呼聲最高的繼任人選雖然能力相當，但名聲卻大不相同。桑默斯近20年來，一直都是民主黨決策圈的重要人物，曾在柯林頓時期擔任財政部長，歐巴馬時期則為國家經濟理事會的一員，亦成功控管了90年代的金融危機；但他也常常犯錯，例如哈佛大學校長一職，就結束得相當難看。
耶倫在90年代末期擔任柯林頓的經濟顧問委員會之時，則顯得相對低調。她在2004～2011年擔任舊金山聯邦準備銀行總裁，自2010年至今也一直擔任聯準會副主席，協助制定對抗復甦力道不足的政策。
前任聯準會副主席科恩（Donal Kohn）、歐巴馬的首任財政部長蓋斯納（Timothy Geithner）等人亦有可能成為黑馬。名單上可能還會出現更多名字，但目前呈現出耶倫和桑默斯兩強相爭的局面。
不過，兩位候選人表現出來的格調實在不夠，令人失望，候選人的經濟看法並沒有受到足夠關注。加州大學柏克萊分校的羅莫夫婦（Christina Romer以及David Romer）在2003年進行的研究顯示，支持「合理」基本貨幣原則架構的聯準會主席候選人，表現通常會比較好；他們也發現，候選人過去的聲明，十分適合用來預期他們未來的行動。
耶倫的看法十分開放，她曾就貨幣政府和聯準會當前的策略發表許多看法，同時也強調，聯準會的目標是為了維持價格穩定和提升就業率，但聯準會在解決失業問題方面，還可以做得更多。
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