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America's economy

By The Economist
From The Economist
Published: February 01, 2013

AMERICA has lately seemed to levitate above the economic difficulties plaguing other rich countries, from Europe, to Britain, to Japan. This morning's news, that the American economy shrank at a 0.1% annual pace in the last three months of 2012, may therefore come as a bit of a shock to many. A slowdown from the 3.1% growth notched up in the third quarter was expected, but outright contraction was not. The surprise may fuel muttering about the threat of a double-dip recession, but the news is less bad than it seems. Calling a new recession would be premature, for several reasons.

First, it is important to note that this is the government's advance report, which will subsequently be revised several times. Growth in the third quarter was initially reported at just 2.0% before being revised up more than a percentage point. Second, the bad number is driven by a few one-off peculiarities in the data. Federal defence spending shrank at a striking 22% annual pace in the fourth quarter, knocking 1.28 percentage points off of growth. That was mostly (though not entirely) due to typical shifting of spending into the third quarter ahead of the end of the fiscal year in September. (Correspondingly, the 0.64 percentage-point defence contribution to growth in the third quarter was somewhat overstated.) A big change in private inventories also knocked 1.27 percentage points off growth. Real final sales grew at more than a 1% annual pace for the quarter, suggesting that underlying demand continues to grow, albeit weakly.

Concern is not entirely unjustified, however. Exports turned in a particularly dismal performance, reflecting in part the weakness across much of the world economy that will continue to be a source of worry for America. Personal consumption helped carry the economy forward in the fourth quarter, growing at a 2.2% annual pace. The American consumer may have a harder slog in 2013, however, thanks to fiscal tightening, and especially the lapsing of the payroll tax cut at the end of 2012. Other cuts may loom; if planned spending cuts—the "sequester"—are allowed to take place, defence spending will tumble even more, dragging growth down with it.

But there are encouraging signs as well. Investment looked healthy in the fourth quarter. Equipment and software investment rose at a 12.4% annual pace. Perhaps more heartening was the 15.3% surge in residential investment, so long a drag on the economy. As the housing sector continues to strengthen, it will provide a welcome bulwark against other headwinds. State and local government spending subtracted slightly from growth to end the year, as it has done for most of the past three years, but that too should soon switch back to positive contributions.

All in all, the fourth-quarter performance is more warning shot than recession indicator. Underlying growth is positive but vulnerable to disruptions from abroad or from Washington. Now is no time for careless policy.

美國經濟再次衰退？

2013-02-01 Web only 作者：經濟學人

最新的數據指出，2012年美國第四季經濟年化成長率為-0.1%，這消息可能震撼了不少人。去年第三季成長為3.1%，許多人也預期第四季成長會下滑，但大部分人都不認為會直接跌至衰退。有人可能會開始擔心雙底衰退，但情況其實沒有表面上那麼嚴重。

本次數據為美國政府的先期預估，隨後也會進行多次修正。去年第三季的先期成為預估為2.0%，最後修正升幅則超過了1個百分點。再者，數個一次性事件亦也影響了此數據；聯邦國防支出在第四季的年化衰退率達22%，拉低了1.28百分點的成長，其主因為財政年度於第三季結束，因此支出通常會移往第三季。私人部門庫存變動亦拉低了1.27百分點的成長。第四季實質最終銷售的年化成長率超過1%，表示潛在需求仍在持續成長，只是幅度不大。

不過，擔憂也不是全無理由；出口表現不佳，部分反映了全球大部分地區經濟不振，而此問題也會持續困擾美國。私人消費在第四季扛住了經濟，年化成長率達2.2%，但由於財政緊縮、所得稅優惠告終，美國消費者在2013年可能會比較幸苦。如果國防支出進一步下滑，也會拉低經濟成長。

但眼前也有振奮人心的跡象。第四季的投資成長相當不錯，設備和軟體投資的年化成長率為12.4%，住宅投資成長幅度更達15.3%；房產部門持續走強，將有助美國經濟抵擋打頭風。州政府和地方政府支出稍稍拉低了第四季的成長，但應該很快轉負為正。

總體觀之，第四季的表現比較接近警訊，而非衰退的預兆。潛在成長率仍為正，但此時此刻，決策者應該更加謹慎小心。（黃維德譯）